How a lack of census data threatens India’s future

With the country’s statistical system in shambles, India’s growth prospects, institutions, and marginalised communities are at risk the uncounted.

India’s statistical system, which until recently was a global benchmark for other countries to build their systems, has been weakened by the lack of a census since 2021. Never before in the country’s history has the census been delayed, not even during the peak of World War II in 1941. While the Covid-19 pandemic presented unprecedented challenges to India’s State capacity, the government’s failure to conduct a census undermines its commitment to development, growth, and long-term prosperity. Out of 233 nations (including those not recognised by the United Nations), only 44 have failed to conduct a census since the pandemic. India finds itself in the company of Nigeria, Afghanistan, Madagascar, Sri Lanka, and Ukraine.

The Indian census is considered one of the hallmarks of its administrative success, along with the conduct of free and fair elections. Three years after the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, the continued absence of a census jeopardises India’s long-term growth prospects, weakens the delivery of quality public goods and services, and undermines the credibility of its institutions. At its worst, it serves as a tool of exclusion for marginalised groups, women, and the poor, ultimately undercutting India’s soft power.

The Indian State, under Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister, built a robust statistical and administrative system that aimed to inform policy-making. Indian scientist and statistician P C Mahalanobis, as Nikhil Menon notes in his Planning Democracy, was instrumental in this endeavour, as were attempts within the Planning Commission through extensive coordination with states through the National Development Council.

In a letter to chief ministers during the early 1950s, when India was grappling with severe food shortages, Nehru wrote that food provision programmes would need to be assessed for their effectiveness by asking each provincial government to “take every possible step to mobilise all statistical data lying unused in village and district records and undertake special enquiries for collecting such data as may not be available.” Since then, India has not only pioneered a census but also the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO), the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), and annual economic surveys at both the national and state levels.

However, this once-vaunted system has now come under strain. For example, in 2017-2018, the National Sample Survey’s findings were suppressed because their results indicated a fall in consumption and, in turn, worsening economic conditions. In the last couple of budgets, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MOSPI), the agency tasked with devising these surveys, has spent more than 75% of its budget on the MPLADS scheme, with barely 10% of the budget spent on the NSSO survey and less than 1% of its allocated budget on strengthening statistical capabilities.

Data is the bedrock of future

In a previous piece, I argued that the Indian State has historically leaned towards control rather than governance and that data-driven policymaking can help remedy this. However, in the absence of institutional autonomy and legislative heft, India’s statistical system may crumble.

The Census provides critical data to governments, think tanks, businesses, financial institutions, and other organisations since they can plan resources, expansion plans, and efforts accordingly.

For example, the newest census would have more updated numbers of Indians in urban areas, their overall income levels, crucial data for delineating urbanisation, and informing consumption patterns for firms.

The state apparatus provides welfare benefits, designs districts, allocates funding to regions, and provides services based on census data. In the absence of these, the State works on outdated assumptions. For example, it is estimated that approximately 100 million people have not been able to access food under the public distribution system because the State uses the 2011 census as a benchmark to allocate grains. 

When a seventh of humanity is not accurately counted, it has cascading global implications. As more countries look to India as an alternate investment destination, given recent tensions with China, it is ever more important for data to be provided in a timely and credible manner to underscore India’s capability to provide a safe, secure, and transparent environment to firms. In essence, key drivers behind economic growth, i.e., accountability, transparency, and effective State capacity, can only be built from robust data inputs.

Of course, data alone is not enough to address India's challenges. Credibility forms the bedrock of both markets and policymaking. It is a necessary starting point for the State to successfully deliver public goods, along with training programmes that are essential for enhancing India’s State capacity. In the short term, conducting a census is a great first step, but in the long term, codifying the census in law or even in the Constitution, as in the United States, and establishing a permanent staff to conduct shorter and more frequent surveys may act as a step forward to ensure its regularity.

India has witnessed an impressive growth trajectory since 1991, with millions being lifted out of poverty and the economy opening up. This, when compounded with State intervention to support supply-side changes to the economy, from better physical and digital infrastructure to rights-based government intervention, has setup a system that can grapple with the dislocations growth provides. However, in the absence of credible and updated figures about India’s citizens, this infrastructure is but for naught.

A census is the need of the hour, in the absence of which the administrative state operates in a vacuum and with outdated assumptions, harming the livelihoods of 140 crore Indians.

(The writer is an independent researcher)