How China-Russia alliance affects India

Recently, China’s President Xi Jinping visited Moscow and met Russian President Vladimir Putin. This was the 40th meeting between Xi and Putin. The visit demonstrated the further strengthening of the China-Russia alliance. Graham Allison has described the deepening China-Russia strategic relationship as the ‘most consequential undeclared alliance in the world.’ Last year, just before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, these two countries signed a joint statement in which they declared that they have built a ‘no limits’ partnership that will have ‘no forbidden areas’.

For India, the deepening strategic cooperation between China and Russia is an ominous signal.

Read | China’s Russia game a concern for India

The faltering war in Ukraine and the lacklustre military performance of Russia through the year have increased its dependence on China. Moscow is now a junior partner of Beijing and is dependent on China for politico-economic support. A bulk of Russian energy exports are going to China, and the Chinese yuan has emerged as an alternative currency for the payments to Russia. There were reports about likely Chinese military exports to Russia. However, the US has warned China to refrain from sending weapons to Russia.

The growing Russian political, economic, and military dependence on China is bad news for India for three reasons. The first and most important problem is that of China. India and China are locked in a border standoff in Ladakh, and the border in Arunachal Pradesh has also seen skirmishes. The bulk of India’s military arsenal consists of Russian weapons. China is also receiving advanced Russian weapons and technologies. The deepening Russia-China alliance means whatever advantage India
may have enjoyed in the past along the frontier may not exist anymore.

Given Russia’s dependence on China for political and economic support, it will be unwilling to put pressure on China or even take a supportive stand towards India in the border confrontation. Coupled with India’s eroding military edge over China due to the similar weapons deployed by both sides, this will push India farther away from Russia and closer to the West. The military-technical relationship between India and the West will also deepen further. India’s efforts to diversify its weapons supplies away from Russia will be intensified.

Second, the China-Russia alliance is directed against the United States and the West and impinges on India’s geopolitical trajectory. It will influence the geopolitics of Eurasia as well as the Indo-Pacific and present difficult dilemmas for India. India is a member of Eurasia’s premier security organisation, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO). It is also an enthusiastic participant in the US-led Indo-Pacific initiatives like the Quad. Sharpening great power rivalries and strengthening of China-Russia alliance will force India to perform the difficult balancing act between Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific. It will mean recalibrating India’s diplomatic as well as strategic priorities and posture.

Finally, as the host of this year’s G-20 summit, India will not want to see a confrontation between China and Russia on the one hand and the Western countries on the other at the summit. The sharp divisions and the confrontationist dynamic will directly and, more importantly, negatively impact the planned outcomes of
the summit.

India is also the chair of SCO this year and will be expected to ensure that the organisation tones down its anti-western rhetoric. Iran, another anti-Western country, will be added as a new member to the grouping, which will further complicate India’s tasks.

In the last two decades, the balance of power in the China-Russia alliance has reversed. China is now the senior partner, whereas Russia is further diminished by the quagmire in Ukraine.
For India, despite the widespread public sympathy and decades-long strategic relationship, Russia is no longer an attractive partner. It is heavily sanctioned by the West, excessively dependent on China, and, as seen in Ukraine, is no longer a military great power.

The Russia-China alliance and their competitive relationship with the West are reshaping the world around India, and it is being forced to adjust its strategies. While the dilemmas that India faced owing to the China-Russia partnership were apparent, Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow has accentuated those dilemmas.

(The writer is an assistant professor at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal Academy of Higher Education, Udupi.)