How threatening are fault lines in Gupkar alliance?

On July 31, when former Chief Minister of Jammu & Kashmir and president of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) stood behind a lectern to deliver a speech to mark the 24th foundation day of the PDP, the party workers were all ears.

Soon Mehbooba Mufti began upbraiding the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), saying that it did not achieve anything by putting paid to the special position of Jammu and Kashmir.

Her speech was interspersed by the clapping of her party workers as she recounted the party’s achievements during its rule from 2002 to 2005.

Mufti was careful not to criticise her non-BJP political adversaries.

However, in neighbouring Pulwama town, PDP youth president Waheed-ur-Rehman Parra — who was granted bail on May 25, 2022 after serving about a year-and-a-half in jail on charges under the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act — stirred up a hornet's nest while addressing a similar function.

Parra slammed the National Conference (NC) for boiling down its demands for conducting an election. He said that those responsible for the rigging of the 1987 polls and creating Ikhwan, a state backed militia, are begging for the elections. 

The NC reacted sharply to Parra's remarks with its spokesperson Imarn Nabi Dar tweeting ‘if you feel suffocated within the alliance, simply walk away instead of resorting to fake narratives to justify your action’. 

Both the PDP and the NC are the major constituents of the People's Alliance for Gupkar Declaration (PAGD), an alliance formed to fight for the restoration of Article 370. 

Since its formation, the alliance has fought the District Development Council elections together and have shared similar views on a raft of other issues. 

Parra's attack on the NC comes five days before the fourth anniversary of the abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35-A. 

His remarks lay bare the chinks in the PAGD, which, if not addressed soon it could turn into deep fissures.

Who stands to benefit 

In an alliance of five political parties — the NC, the PDP, the CPI(M), the CPI, and the Awami National Conference — the PDP stands to gain the most if the alliance fights the assembly or general elections together.

After many of its senior leaders, including Altaf Bukhari who formed Jammu and Kashmir Apni Party, Haseeb Drabu, Muzafar Hussain Beig, and others left the party, the PDP has been facing an existential crisis. Its alliance with the BJP in 2014 is a key reason for its loss of popularity among the masses.

The CPI(M), led by Mohammad Yousuf Tarigami, will benefit the least from the PAGD. Tarigami, a well-respected leader whose popularity has not declined even after August 5, 2019, is the binding force among the PAGD allies.

The problems  

Although Parra's carping criticism of the NC over the elections has elicited strong reactions, the restoration of electoral democracy has been a crucial issue in Jammu & Kashmir. 

Since the collapse of unpopular PDP-BJP government in 2018, the region has been reeling under a protracted bureaucratic rule.

Elections to the panchayat and the urban local body seem to be the only ones the Union government is interested in holding; these cannot be a substitute for assembly elections. 

State legislatures are not only forums for elected representatives to raise issues of public concern, but also institutions empowered to legislate on different subjects. 

In the absence of assembly elections, an array of problems confronting the ordinary people remain unresolved, youth unemployment is the top among these grievances.

Future of PAGD

Parra's scathing attack on the NC has touched off a debate about the fate of the alliance. Although Mufti and other senior PDP leaders, who spoke on the foundation day functions held across the Valley, desisted from speaking against the NC, Parra's remarks should not be seen in isolation. 

Mufti has been avoiding the PAGD or all meetings of non-BJP parties for a long time now. In March, she chose to stay away from an all-party meeting held to seek early assembly elections in J&K, though she sent a party leader to the meeting.

She was also not the part of the delegation that met the Election Commission of India in New Delhi.

Last month, Mehbooba did not join Farooq Abdullah and Tarigami to meet Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha. It was as the third time when she sent a representative to the meeting. 

Mufti was conspicuous by her absence in these meetings.

Additionally, the PAGD has not met since October, which is also symptomatic of the alliance losing steam. 

However, two days after Parra's remarks, a PDP spokesperson said that the statement was made at local level in reaction to some comments made by the NC leaders. 

This could signal that the PDP is keen on damage control, and would want to paper over the internal differences. It might be premature to write off the PAGD.

Gulzar Bhat is a Srinagar-based journalist.

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.