India’s generation without a census

The country is unlikely to conduct the next Census before 2024. As time goes by, it may become more difficult to correct the anomalies of inequitable growth

Imagine meeting someone after 15 years, and the things you would say to that person. “Oh, you look so different!” Or perhaps: “You haven’t changed a bit.”

I reckon we’d have similar things to say when we finally see the findings from the next Census, which will take place after the longest gap since 1881, when the first Census was conducted non-synchronously in different parts of India. Since then, we have had fifteen decennial censuses, each conducted without fail; wars, epidemics, disasters, recessions, Lok Sabha and assembly elections notwithstanding. Until we came to 2021. Evidently, Covid-19 changed everything.

There is no substitute for the vast mine of information that a national census provides, ranging from economic activity, literacy levels and education, housing and household amenities, urbanisation, fertility and mortality, language, religion, migration, disability, and other socio-cultural and demographic data. This decadal information is an important tool for understanding India and devising government schemes and plans.

In a diverse country like India, holding a census is a gargantuan exercise. In 2019, there was an announcement that 330,000 enumerators would be enlisted to conduct the 2021 census. At that time, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had stated that the 2021 national census would be done fully digitally, through a mobile phone application. The enumerators were to also have the paper option available, the noting of which they would have had to submit electronically. The government also allocated ₹37.68 billion for the Census in the 2021 Union Budget. However, the pandemic delayed that exercise.

According to news reports, the sixteenth decennial Census is not taking place any time before 2024. If the Census is conducted post the Lok Sabha elections in May 2014, we will have the findings from an India that would have seen a decade of BJP rule.

These days, they say a generation changes every 15 years. New agers often say, “thoughts become things”. It would be interesting to know what impact the right-wing leanings have had in terms of statistics. And whether the heightened, collective Hindutva sentiment of the last decade has translated into something tangible.

For instance, has the religious composition of India changed over the last 13 years? Has the ‘beti bachao beti padhao’ slogan worked, or has the sex ratio got distorted even further? What about economic disparities, rate of urbanisation and household amenities? How many Indian homes have a toilet now? Has life expectancy increased? Have regional disparities reduced since 2011? How many children dropped out of school during Covid? And how many people lost their lives during the pandemic?

Think of it, the first Aadhaar card was issued in 2010, and today 1.31 billion people in the country have this unique identity card. So much has changed about India over the last 12 years. If anything, a digital census could have been undertaken more quickly and efficiently.

It’s unfortunate that the government has not rolled out that exercise yet. Several other countries couldn’t hold their decennial Census due to the pandemic. But that’s all in the past. Many, including the US, UK and China, have published it and are busy analysing its findings.

For India, the findings could be astounding. In a lot of ways, we would have progressed. But in many ways, we have also regressed. Economic well-being has bypassed many sections. Prior to the pandemic, many had moved up the poverty line. But during the pandemic, they slipped back into poverty. Various reports say the rich have become richer, and the poor poorer.

For evidence-based policy-making and planning, we must have the latest census numbers. The more time goes by, the more difficult it may be to grapple with the realities of the new, digital India. With time, it will undoubtedly be more difficult to correct the anomalies of inequitable growth.

The next Census will be a litmus test for Modi’s India. This will be the first Census after the abrogation of Article 370, after the decriminalisation of homosexuality, after the setting up of the Smart Cities Mission, and after the rollout of the Aadhaar and Ayushman Bharat (universal healthcare) schemes. It seems like the current dispensation doesn’t want to know those numbers just yet.

(Swati Prasad is a freelance business journalist)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.