Political subtext to Nikki Haley’s ‘India sees US as weak’ statement

Polemics are part of political campaigns in boisterous democracies such as India and the United States.  

But campaign trails reflect contemporary realities, a need for hard looks, and doses of Freudian slips as candidates strive to signify their relevance to get elected. It is also imperative for them to prove that the alternative is not up to the tasks at hand and nor can they match their wits and wisdom.

That is exactly the wider context of aspiring Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley saying in an interview to Fox that India doesn't trust Americans to lead or win and New Delhi is playing it smart by staying close to Russia.

Haley's immediate concern is the uphill task of clinching the Republican party nomination over former US President Donald Trump provided he doesn't slip off on legal troubles to get booted out of the presidential race.

Her political messaging ahead of the primaries is very clear. That NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation)-sceptical Trump with his protectionist instincts and widely attributed soft corner for Russia is not the ideal choice to prepare the US to win the world and friends such as India, which knows this and has been playing its cards wisely.

The reference to India is par with the course as the New Delhi-Washington relationship now spans every walk of human life from space co-operation to spice trade, and it remains one of the most defining partnerships of this century.

In the American order of things, democratic India with a market economy and friends across the aisle is the best choice as a counterweight to China.

But Haley’s statement entails ground realities of the fast-changing global order with fast-paced geopolitical developments where certainties of the past hardly hold any permanence.

For India, the US is an invaluable partner, and the ties are forged on mutual dependence, geopolitical headwinds, business and trade opportunities, commonalities of democratic polity, and a strong people-to-people connect.

None of this is going to change overnight. But does India see the US as a weak power incapable of leading the world, as Haley seems to be suggesting with a flourish that campaign seasons are flush with?  

The US is a superpower, both on economic prowess and military might. US corporations are as dominant as the US dollar in world trade. However, the projection of US power is on a consistent wane across the world. The US is no longer the most important decider in global crises, or can use its leverage at will.

Despite a crippling sanction and a European gang-up, Russians are holding on in Ukraine.

There is no huge bipartisan support for additional financial assistance for Ukraine and US efforts are woefully short of addressing the European fatigue in pushing Russian forces out of Ukraine.

Another country which is at the consistent receiving end of US sanctions, Iran, is far from crumpling, and asserting its regional aspirations emphatically with ample nuisance value for the US.

The US’ nation-building efforts in Afghanistan where it waged its longest foreign war in history have almost been erased by the Taliban. Afghanistan was one of the prominent theatres of the Cold War rivalry between the erstwhile Soviet Union and the US.

In the Gulf, US influence is on decline and the rulers of the oil-rich countries are rolling out the red carpet to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The US’ role as a net security provider to the regions of its choice and cops on global patrolling have been called to question. Both the Ukraine conflict and the Israel-Hamas war have reinforced the importance of multipolarity in world order.

Haley spoke about India playing it smart with Russia. That amounts to missing the Pacific Ocean for a lake in Alaska. India’s ties with Russia have the backing of history, the potency of nostalgia, and are cast in the image of a friend in need. Beyond the dominating defence ties, the Ukraine crisis, and renewed political push from both the leaderships have added more economic heft, connectivity salience, and strategic intent to the ties. India has been expanding its defence sourcing outside of Russia, but the pre-eminence of Russia as the most lenient and trusted source remains unchallenged.   

India has the advantage of having friends from all blocs and ideological hues on issues that divide the world powers sharply. That's a good position to hold on if the prevailing situations remain as they are.

(Jayanth Jacob, a foreign policy commentator, has covered the Ministry of external affairs for more than two decades. X: @jayanthjacob)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.