Preparing for post-November

Just hours after Ismail Haniyeh, the top political leader of Hamas, greeted the new President of Iran, Masoud Pezeshkian, on Wednesday, he was killed by an Israeli missile that precisely hit the state guesthouse in Tehran, where he was staying. The lethal precision strike came just a day after Israel had eliminated Faud Shukr, the operations chief of Hezbollah, the other Iranian proxy fighting the Jewish State, in Beirut.

From the choice of the place of attack and the timing, it appears that Israel’s political leadership has plans other than making the radical outfit Hamas pay for its attack on Israel on October 7 last, in which Hamas killed more than 1,200 people and took, and continues to hold, hundreds hostage. Attempts to persuade Tel Aviv to negotiate for the release of hostages and end hostilities have fallen on deaf ears, mainly for two reasons. One, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will likely have to face elections again soon, one that would be easier for him if he can face it as the leader who liquidated Hamas. Two, if he could provoke Iran to a wider war, he could unite enough of Israel behind him as well as force America to stay on his side.

Iran has already written to the UN Secretary General informing him of its right to take appropriate military action against Israel for the violation of its sovereignty. An attack inside Iran, in the capital city, close to the seat of power, will not be easy for Tehran to let go unanswered. It is a dilemma for Iran’s new President Pezeshkian. If he delays the expected revenge attack on Israel, he could lose support among the higher clergy that holds the regime together; if he attacks sooner than later, he would be playing right into Israel’s hands.

The obvious failure of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to protect Hamas’ Ismail Haniyeh presents another problem for the Iranian leadership. IRGC’s latest failure has become glaring given that more than half-a-dozen of the top leadership of Iran’s proxy outfits and even of the IRGC itself have been killed by Israeli agencies since the October 7 terror attack on Israel. Ibrahim Biari, who commanded the Jabaliya Battalion in Northern Gaza; Razi Mousavi, a high-ranking general of IRGC; Saleh-al-Arouri, chief interlocutor between Hamas and Hezbollah; Marwan Issa, one of the masterminds of the October 7 attack, are only a few names. Tehran is under pressure to retaliate so as to pacify and keep the morale of its fighting force high as well as signal Tel Aviv that it cannot get away without paying a heavy price for its actions. Yet, it will be difficult to deter Israel from conducting more such targeted killings.

Nevertheless, Tel Aviv would do well to reconsider its goal of completely eliminating Hamas and Hezbollah leadership. Israel has not been able to completely eliminate even a single terror outfit acting against it in all these years. It is doubtful if these targeted killings and counter-offensives will ever lead to any solution to the Palestinian issue, which is supposed to be at the root of all terror activities.

Strong world leadership is needed to bring the parties to the Israel-Palestine conflict to the negotiating table. The US seems unable to provide that leadership, unable to play an honest broker despite having somewhat distanced itself from the Netanyahu regime. With the US presidential elections just weeks away, Washington is in no position to make any positive difference to the situation. Worse, even after the elections, whether Trump wins or Kamala Harris, it is not clear as to how the White House will act post-November. In any case, the American writ no longer runs as strongly over Israel as it used to. Therefore, a wider conflict in the Middle East looks almost inevitable.

Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine conflict carries on, despite Putin’s Russia clearly seeming to have gained the upper hand. But will an economically stressed Europe, which is also witnessing the rise of the far-right in many countries, continue to back Ukraine forever, even if US policy does not change post-November?

Does all this open up space for India to play a role in the Middle East or in Europe? India’s political leadership should ponder over what role it can and should play in the post-US election scenario and put in place strategies for different scenarios.