Running a coalition government will test Narendra Modi’s political maneuverability

Managing a coalition government during his third term will test Modi’s diplomatic skills at home as much as it had on external affairs during his first two terms.

The Opposition — particularly the Congress — is trying to portray the general election results as a ‘moral defeat’ for Narendra Modi, going to the extent of calling it a ‘resounding’ rejection of his leadership. That is an exaggeration but having fought the elections in a presidential style with a clarion call of ‘400 paar’, Modi cannot disown the numbers. However, it would be wrong to say that the elections were a referendum on him.

Speculation is now keeping analysts and commentators busy as to how Modi, used to a CEO-style leadership, will embrace ‘coalition dharma’ where he will have to deal with powerful allies with a reputation of being both demanding and fickle. Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) not having an absolute majority in Lok Sabha curtail Modi’s flamboyance and room for manoeuvre, thus impairing his reform agenda both on the economic and political fronts?

Further, it may force him to make compromises such as granting special economic status to Bihar and Andhra Pradesh, which may open a political pandora's box. This will test Modi’s diplomatic skills at home as much as it had on external affairs in his first two terms.

Many of the concerns are valid, and there are lessons in the verdict that cannot be glossed over. Some of these considerations would have existed even if the BJP breached the halfway mark or 272 seats. These issues bothered not just Modi’s opponents but even a section of his supporters and well-wishers. Without subscribing to the extreme views about apparent ‘authoritarian’ traits displayed by Modi, there was a perception of arrogance across the Modi administration, especially of some ministers holding key portfolios. Most of these individuals did not have a sizable mass base and drew their power and influence from Modi. There was an all-pervasive sense of invincibility that contributed to such an attitude that spilt over to other party functionaries, like media spokespersons, all the way to the local satraps.

The media’s complaint about loss of access was shared by industrialists and businessmen too. With the demise of Arun Jaitley, the only bridge that remained between these two constituencies was cut. Modi had his reasons for such an approach — which were ostensibly preventing leakage of information and lobbying in high places. However, it also meant shutting down listening posts and cutting off the feedback loop. One-way communication can also create a delusion of infallibility, which when combined with an aura of invincibility can be a lethal combination potent with hubris.

Though some of this may have been either well-intentioned or inadvertent, impressions tend to solidify over time. The discomfort was palpable across the board, and thus there were apprehensions about the turn this could take if Modi returned for a third term with an even greater majority. A school of thought was emerging even among relatively neutral and politically agnostic quarters about the need for a more balanced composition of Parliament without it descending into a dysfunctional coalition as seen in the past. The current verdict is, therefore, being interpreted by them as pure serendipity.

More problematic has been the confrontationist relationship, verging on hostility, that developed between Modi and Opposition leaders — particularly chief ministers during his earlier two terms. He may have had relatively better equations with a few leaders like Naveen Patnaik, but the camaraderie was never to the point of bonhomie and often turned frosty. Given this, the apprehension of how Modi will manage coalition politics is understandable.

Modi is far too astute a politician not to realise what the situation demands of him and contrary to the general opinion about him, he has on more than one occasion shown the uncanny ability to evolve and reinvent himself as per the need of the times. He cannot do it alone. While he can take the lead and set the example, he will need the support of a team of seasoned colleagues who have a blend of political acumen and high emotional quotient. For this, he may have to reduce his dependence on technocrats and induct some trusted senior colleagues who have relationships across the aisle, and an affable persona. No wonder the talk of Shivraj Singh Chouhan moving to New Delhi has evoked a positive reaction. He needs more leaders like the late Jaitley and Ananth Kumar, and Venkaiah Naidu by his side to navigate the minefields of alliance politics. 

One may say there has to be a degree of reciprocity. However, one must be realistic. All alliances are marriages of convenience that come with an expiry date written in invisible ink. The trick lies in reading it before your partner does. Modi is a master of the art of timing, so he should do well.

(Sandip Ghose is a current affairs commentator and marketing professional.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.