Russia-Ukraine War: Can Germany's Olaf Scholz pull India towards West?

When German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visits Delhi on February 25 and 26, he will be looking for ways to give meaning to his foreign policy ever since he made his Zietenwende (epochal shift) speech in Bundestag (parliament) on February 27, 2022 — three days after Russian forces entered Ukraine.

Scholz’s speech was dramatic as it endeavoured to change everything that post-War Germany had held dear: its pacifism, its close ties with Russia, and, most importantly, its low spend on defence — which was, of late, being resented by the United States and some European neighbours. German foreign policy has seen its share of vacillations since then, but the bigger question remains: Has Scholz’s Zietenwende speech fuelled a forever war in Europe?

Also Read | The war in Ukraine: Where is it heading?

Speeches Galore

In these circumstances, what has Scholz got to offer New Delhi? As the chair and host of G20, India might not be averse to mediating in this crisis. That said, will Russia or Ukraine welcome such mediation? Though the German security adviser claimed that there are many countries willing to mediate, will Moscow listen? For that matter what to make of US President Joe Biden’s belligerence that was exhibited in his speech from the ramparts of an old Warsaw fort on February 22? He made it clear that US will prevent Russia from winning the war against Ukraine. There was no talk of peace as Russian President Vladimir Putin speech was equally tough.

In Scholz’s Bundestag speech, he promised to help Ukraine fight off Russia, to have a one-time spend of Euro100 billion in defence, and an increase in defence expenditure to 2 percent of the GDP. Besides these commitments that have major financial implications, Berlin has also promised to end its dependence on cheap Russian gas. Incidentally, it is this cheap gas that has made many industries in Germany viable.

Also Read | Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Is it a 'crisis' or a 'war', G20 communique goes down to the wire

Sabotage

Though understated, Germany decided to unhinge itself from Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas deal by withdrawing its certification a few days before the war between Russia and Ukraine commenced. It is apparent that it happened under US persuasion. Why did Germany, under the Left-wing Social Democrats succumb to pressure from Washington when it was reluctant to participate in the war and keen to pursue the policies of former Chancellor Angela Merkel who refused to supply weapons to Ukraine?

Even before tensions flared up in the region, the US’ trenchant opposition to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline was common knowledge. On February 7, 2002, US President Joe Biden had made it clear that if Russia invaded Ukraine, it would “bring an end to it”. The question many were asking then was: how was Biden so confident about neutering the underwater pipeline that came through the Baltic Sea?

The narrative pushed by Washington and some members of the Atlantic alliance, mainly the United Kingdom, was that Russia’s influence would grow at the cost of NATO if inexpensive natural gas was available to European Union countries. Russia had spent a colossal $11 billion to lay the underwater pipeline. Moscow never thought then that the protective safeguards would not be enough to fight off a determined and a powerful enemy. On September 26, the pipeline was mysteriously blown up.

Over the past few days, Moscow, with support from Beijing, has demanded that the UN Security Council probe the circumstances behind the sabotage. Beginning with expose by Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist Seymour Hersh that it was the US that took out the pipeline, there have been voices such as Nobel prize winner Jeff Sachs claiming that the act of sabotage was “pre-announced” as Biden had promised to take it out in the event of a Russian invasion. He further says that US had the capability and reason to do so. It is the CIA, Sachs reminded, that had organised coups, blown up infrastructure even when it involved allies, like in this case Germany that co-owned Nord Stream 2.

Hard To Decouple

Will Scholz present his point of view to New Delhi on who blew up the pipeline? The granular details that Hersh provides suggest that Scholz knew every detail about how the US choreographed the Nord Stream2 ‘take out’ operation.

Though Scholz’s popularity ratings have risen in January, after being depressingly low, the challenge to him and Germany after shifting from its earlier policy is immense. Many industries are losing viability as cheap gas is no longer available. Chemical giant, BASF, announced that it was downsizing its operation in Europe and moving to China. There are 9 percent small and medium enterprises from Mittelstand, Germany, that want to move abroad due to energy uncertainty

Germany, which is a major exporter to China, has been exploring whether its economy can really decouple. Will that be the bait for India to dump Russia and China, and align with US and Europe at this moment of extraordinary churning?

New Delhi’s dilemma could deepen if Beijing, which has accused Washington of stoking fires in Europe, help Moscow with troops and weapons to fight NATO forces.

(Sanjay Kapoor is Editor, Hardnews.)

(The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)