Tamil actor Vijay’s political entry will not be a cakewalk

Star power is no longer a guarantee for political success in Tamil Nadu. While stars continue to draw audiences to their films, this does not translate into votes

For close to a decade now, Tamil actor/star Vijay has kept the State guessing about his political ambitions. In Tamil Nadu's cine-fuelled world of politics this is nothing new. Superstar Rajinikanth kept people guessing for over 25 years before finally bringing an end to the speculation about his political entry.

As a wise man once said, an element of success lies in keeping them guessing.

Vijay is a huge star in Tamil Nadu, with a fan base among the youth that few others, even pan Indian stars, can match. His appeal cuts across multiple states in the south, and his films for long have set the box office counters jingling.

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Of late, though, his last few releases have had relatively subdued runs by his standards.

When the Vijay Makkal Iyakkam (Vijay People's Movement), the fans organisation that often functions as his social service platform, announced it would garland the statue of Babasaheb Ambedkar on April 14 at various places across the state, the speculation about his political entry reignited. The VMI has also launched a drive to collect booth-level and ward-level information about voters, information of the kind an organisation would need if it were to transform into a political party.

Is Vijay planning to enter politics? What would be his ideological position? From whatever we know so far through the dialogues/messages from his films, he has been critical of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s policies, while not overtly cosying up to either the Dravidian or the Tamil nationalist parties. His family shares close ties with the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), but Vijay's own equation with his father, well-known director SA Chandrasekhar, has been strained.

His VMI unofficially contested in the local body elections in Tamil Nadu last year, and 10 candidates won in municipalities and town panchayats; 129 were elected ward members in the rural local body elections. All these candidates contested as independents on different symbols, and Vijay had not even actively canvassed for votes. The organisation extended its support to these candidates, and they emerged victorious.

Not much can be read into these victories as many of those elected are youth who are popular in local circles, are active in social work, and are unlikely to find the prominence they enjoy in Vijay’s outfit in established political parties. This was also why these results did set off media speculation about Vijay's political entry.

In the past the BJP has targeted Vijay by choosing to refer to him by his full name (Joseph Vijay) to put the spotlight on to his religion, but the people of Tamil Nadu do not seem to have lent much credence to such attempts to polarise his fan base. The ‘Thalapathy’ (Prince) as he is affectionately called by his fans, has lost little of his huge popularity; though of late, the modest performance of his recent releases has raised questions among his critics whether the actor who will soon turn 50-years-old has his best years behind him.

Star power is no longer a guarantee for political success in Tamil Nadu. Today, while stars continue to draw audiences to their films, this does not translate into votes. Kamal Haasan and his struggling Makkal Needhi Maiyam will vouch for this. Vijay is almost a recluse who makes limited public appearances, and is also far from being a firebrand speaker (Tamil Nadu loves fiery speakers). Yet he still has immense popularity, especially in those under the age of 40, many of whom can be seen worshiping his cut-outs during his movie releases.

Social media has ensured that every move and word by stars like Vijay is scrutinised, thus making it more difficult to stay aloof from the masses beyond a point. Is Vijay up to the task of being a 24X7 politician? That seems unlikely. While he does have the fans and an organisation of sorts, there is no second line of known leadership, and few with the political experience to guide him should he take the plunge.

Also, established political parties are likely to hold their fire only as long as Vijay does not take a formal plunge into politics. Currently, he has few enemies, barring the BJP. If he takes on the ruling DMK, his movies could be affected. The first family of the state is believed to maintain a stranglehold over the movie industry, and Vijay may not even get theatres to release his films. In fact, his recent movie ‘Varisu’ was distributed by Udhayanidhi Stalin's Red Giant Movies in a move that was seen as something the actor may not have had much of a choice about. At one time Vijay and the DMK heir apparent Udhayanidhi Stalin were friends. That does not seem to be the case anymore with Udhayanidhi Stalin even saying in an interview they do not keep in touch as they used to.

If Vijay is to enter politics, he would do well to take a final call soon. Dragging this on for too long may see people lose interest, as it happened with the case of Rajinikanth where the Superstar's guessing game was finally reduced to a meme material. If Vijay enters politics, he will find that it is an uphill struggle and taking on the political parties may be a lot tougher than the villains he is used to annihilating in his movies.

(Sumanth Raman is a Chennai-based television anchor, and political analyst)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH