Trump 2.0 and that familiar unpredictability

Undermining of multilateralism, trade belligerence against China, and no-restraint endorsement of Israel could mark his second term in office

After a closely fought election, Donald Trump has won the American presidency a second time. His ascent to this office, once again, holds considerable implications for the future of both American domestic politics as well as the world. Based on his personal beliefs and ideological predilections which were the basis of his policies during his first term, it is possible to make a range of reasonable predictions about the policies that he is likely to pursue once in office.

If his first term provided any clues, his second will be marked with a retreat from the principles of multilateralism. He has shown scant regard for multilateral institutions and so, it is entirely reasonable to surmise that he will probably withdraw from participation in some of the crucial accords that were reached during the term of the Joe Biden administration. To that end, it is all but certain that he will withdraw the United States, a second time, from the Paris Agreement on climate change. Without an American presence, let alone active participation and leadership, the accord is likely to be significantly weakened.

Worse still, it is most unlikely that in his second term he will display any regard for other multilateral institutions ranging from the World Bank to the World Trade Organisation. The absence of American leadership and initiatives within these organisations is also likely to have adverse consequences on their effectiveness.

Beyond this retreat from multilateralism, Trump is most likely to start a trade war with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Despite the warnings from mainstream, and even conservative, economists about the adverse consequences for American consumers if he imposes these tariffs, he is unlikely to heed their counsel. Instead, he will, in all likelihood, act on his instincts, and the advice of a handful of fringe trade experts. It then remains to be seen if he reverses course once the costs start to hit the American consumer.

Simultaneously, despite his apparent bonhomie with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, he has referred to India as the “tariff king”. Consequently, he may also decide to target India as part of his larger tariff war.

Apart from his resort to tariffs as a panacea to what he perceives to be unfair trade practices and his retreat from multilateralism, Trump is also likely to attenuate American commitments to long-standing allies. During his first term, he expressed grievances against the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) for its apparent unwillingness to bear suitable defense spending burdens. He will return to the same theme during his second stint in office. NATO, the cornerstone of the postwar Western alliance system, may abruptly find itself adrift in the absence of an unequivocal American commitment to it.

This American unwillingness to wholeheartedly remain committed to NATO could have significant strategic consequences for the future of European security. The most immediate concern, of course, will be America’s willingness, or the lack thereof, to defend Ukraine amidst its ongoing attempts to defend against Russian aggression. Given Trump’s fondness for Putin, it is possible that he induces the government of Ukraine to settle the current conflict on terms that are favourable to Russia. Such a move may well embolden Russia as well as other states who harbour extra-territorial ambitions and are prepared to use force in pursuit of those goals.

Israel, Iran, and India in the mix

Beyond the European arena, Trump, even more than Biden, is likely to grant the Netanyahu government in Israel complete leeway to proceed as it deems necessary in both the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. He is also unlikely to counsel any restraint in Israel’s confrontation with Iran. If anything, he may well work in concert with Netanyahu to adopt a more belligerent posture toward the Iranian regime.

Despite India’s close ties with Israel, Trump’s intransigence toward Iran could have ramifications for India’s policies toward Iran. Not content with granting Israel a free hand to militarily tackle Iran, he is likely to impose further, unilateral sanctions on Iran. Furthermore, he may also be inclined to curb Iran’s trade links to other countries. This could very well place India in his crosshairs owing to its trade, energy, and investment ties with Iran. Once again, his past warmth toward Modi may not make much of a difference in his quest to isolate the Iranian regime.

The issue of tariffs and Iran may well prove vexing for New Delhi. However, on one other issue, it can expect relief from Washington, DC. With the Democrats in retreat, Trump is not likely to harangue the Modi government on issues pertaining to human rights. The Trump administration will also maintain its vigilance on the behaviour of China. Consequently, it may well prod India to work more closely with the US in the Indo-Pacific and not lower its guard along the Himalayas despite the recent military disengagement agreement with China.

India, along with much of the world, is now again entering a more unpredictable global order. Trump, as he amply demonstrated during his first term in office, has little or no regard for the postwar global economic and security architecture that had enjoyed a large degree of bipartisan support in the US. Instead, he undermined institutions at home and showed scant regard for established norms. Under these circumstances, it will behove the Modi government in New Delhi to be prepared to deal and cope with his penchant for unpredictability.

(The writer is a Senior Fellow and directs the Huntington Programme on Strengthening US-India Relations at the Hoover Institution, Stanford University)