What the summer of 2024 has in store for India’s farmers

Rabi marketing season (RMS 2024-2025) started on April 1. Despite the concerns being expressed, India is likely to harvest record-high wheat, chana, and mustard crops.

The prediction of heat waves in the April-to-June period will not have much impact on these crops as the crops are already in the maturity phase. Most of the mustard crop has already been harvested. So, rather than the heat, the real concern of the farmers would be untimely rain and hailstorms in the next two to three weeks. In fact, dry weather would be welcomed by the farmers who would still remember the hailstorm in March 2015 when the standing rabi crops were hit and there was large-scale damage to standing crops.

Cocnerns over wheat

In the last two years, the weather in February and March has been erratic.
In February 2022, there was an unusually high temperature which hit the wheat output and brought wheat procurement in RMS 2022-2023 to just 18.79 million tonnes (mt). The government managed its public distribution system by reducing wheat allocation and increasing the
same for rice.

Several restrictive measures were also taken, like a ban on the export of wheat (May 2022) and even the export of wheat products. Stock limits were also imposed on stockists, and they have been lowered for wholesalers from 3,000 tonnes in May 2023 to 500 tonnes in February 2024. From April 1, the stock limits under the Essential Commodities Act have been lifted.

In February 2023 also, the temperature in many wheat-growing states was higher than normal. In RMS 2023-2024 also, wheat procurement at 26.2 mt was less than the average of the last few years. The allocation of more rice in place of wheat in even wheat-eating states continued. So, instead of 5 kg per person of wheat, the ration card holders received 3 kg of wheat and 2 kg of rice.

Ignoring the demand of the wheat processing industry and expert advice, the government did not reduce import duty on wheat. Instead, it released about 10 mt of wheat under the open market sale scheme to cool wheat inflation.

As a result, the wheat stocks in the central pool are likely to be only a little above the buffer norm of 7.5 mt on April 1. The government hopes to procure at least 30 million tonnes of wheat in 2024-2025. To achieve this, the government has mandated that wholesalers, big chain retailers and processors, must declare the wheat stock every week.

Media reports suggest that the government has informally asked the private trade not to purchase a large quantity of wheat till its own procurement needs of about 30 mt are met.

Similar instructions were given to the trade in 2006 also when the wheat stock on April 1 had fallen to 2 mt against the then buffer norm of 4 mt.

The large private players are unlikely to ignore signals from the government and they may procure only a quantity of wheat which will meet their requirement for the next two or three months. If wheat production is 112.02 mt, as per the government estimate, the procurement of about 30 mt of wheat is likely to be achieved, even though current wheat prices are above the minimum support price (MSP). If the prices remain elevated, stock limits may be reimposed.

Even then it will not be a bad idea to enable the import of about 2 mt of wheat by the private sector at lower duty, so that
the inflationary pressure on cereals is eased (rice inflation has been stubborn at more than 10%).

Heat and summer vegetables 

In summer, it is mostly tomato, brinjal, and the vegetables of the Cucurbitaceae family that are cultivated. These include ghia, torai, karela, melon, and watermelon. Cucurbits are antioxidants
due to their ability to clean up free radicals. These vegetables are high in carotenoids also.

However, the bad news is that the mango crop this year may be lower in the Malihabad belt of Lucknow as flowering has been much less.

For the agriculture sector, the real concern is the behaviour of the Monsoon. The good news is that a transition is expected from El Niño to ENSO-neutral by April-June. From June to August La Niña is likely to bring good rainfall. This should hopefully fill up the reservoirs of southern states whose cities are facing acute shortages of even drinking water.

The heat wave predicted by the India Meteorological Department is going
to be hard for a large section of India’s huge workforce who do not work in an airconditioned atmosphere. Their employers will do well to show compassion to shield them from working in hours of peak temperature.

Global warming is a reality and heatwaves in the summer months should not be a surprise. The rich of the world are not doing much to reduce their consumption. The consequences will be mostly borne by the poor, working classes. It is for the governments to formulate and implement green and sustainable policies to mitigate the impact.

(The writer, a former Union Agriculture Secretary, is a trustee of World Food Programme Trust for India.)