Will J&K statehood be restored by the year-end?

If the Narendra Modi government wants to keep to its promise of restoring statehood to Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), the winter session of Parliament offers a good opportunity.

Although no timeline for restoring statehood had been specified, it had promised to restore statehood to J&K in the Supreme Court. The winter session of Parliament beginning on November 25 is an opportune moment to bring an appropriate Bill to Parliament.

An elected government is in place in J&K, and the distraction of Assembly elections will be over. The Delhi assembly election will still be three months away.

Moreover, the resolution of the Omar Abdullah government on statehood does not mention the more intractable question of restoring Article 370 — in fact, the chief minister is on record saying that this may not be possible as of now. The resolution on statehood merely states, “this legislative assembly reaffirms the importance of the special status and constitutional guarantees, which safeguarded the identity, culture and rights of the people of Jammu and Kashmir, and expresses concern over their unilateral removal”.

The crucial issues at the core of restoration of statehood are policing, land, and reserving jobs for locals. The elected government would want these competencies to itself. As of now, both police and land come under the Lieutenant Governor, and jobs are open to all Indian citizens. Will the Centre be willing to let the elected government take decisions about them?

A significant push factor for restoration of statehood is the rise in terrorist activity in J&K, targeting the security forces and civilians. The Modi government would not like to take the flak for the growth in terrorism which has continued despite its incredulous claims that the reading down of Article 370 and the removal of Article 35A had delivered a death blow to terrorism.

Since January alone there have been 25 terrorist incidents in J&K in which 24 security personnel have been killed. Significantly, terrorism has started spreading to the relatively peaceful Jammu as well. In the Jammu region, terrorist attacks have led to 44 people being killed, including 19 security personnel in 2024.

The terrorist attacks in Jammu have decreased in the border districts of Poonch and Rajouri compared to previous years, but have increased in other districts. Official figures show that the number of terrorist killings in Reasi, Doda, and Kathua districts were nine each this year, followed by five in Kishtwar, four in Udhampur, three each in Jammu and Rajouri, and two in Poonch.

The number of foreign terrorists in J&K has also become significant. Recent media reports quoting unnamed intelligence sources claim that there are 119 terrorists operating in J&K, and of them 79 are in the Valley (61 foreign operatives and 18 local recruits), 40 are in the Jammu region (34 foreign and six local recruits). The number of terrorists from Pakistan, remains a matter of serious concern.

Under these circumstances, if the Modi government prefers an elected government to take the blame, it would have to restore statehood and return law-and-order to the state government. As of now, the chief minister does not even attend the meetings of the Unified Headquarters, a joint civil-military apparatus for counter-terrorism, as it is chaired by the lieutenant governor.

Reasons for the recent escalation of terrorism originating in Pakistan are twofold and the state government has little to do with them. The first is Pakistan’s perception that if it turns off the tap on cross-border terrorism then India will never discuss the Kashmir issue with it. The second is that Islamabad also seems to be carrying out tit-for-tat operations in J&K for India’s alleged support for the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), which has been striking at Chinese officials involved in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects, Pakistan army personnel, and even non-Baloch Pakistani workers in Balochistan.

According to some strategic circles, every BLA strike in Pakistan elicits a similar terrorist strike in J&K. On October 11, 21 Punjabi miners were killed by the BLA while they were asleep in Quetta. Between October 18 and 24, there were three terrorist attacks on non-Kashmiri workers in Tral, Ganderbal, and Shopian in J&K, killing eight and injuring one. The BLA also attacked passengers waiting for a train at the Quetta Railway Station, killing 26 people including 14 soldiers. The wounded included 46 soldiers and 14 civilians. Thankfully, nothing similar has taken place in J&K yet.

The point is that the terrorist attacks in J&K are not because of the policies of the state government. Rather, they are the direct result of deteriorating relations between India and Pakistan. The two countries will have to rebuild trust and deal with terrorism by stepping back from whatever operations they may allegedly be involved in each other’s territory.

India-Pakistan relations are not the remit of the elected J&K government. However, once full statehood is restored, it will bear the consequences of the Union government’s policies.

Land is a deeply emotive issue both in the Kashmir valley and in Jammu. It was fear of outsiders that had led to the demand of a state subject law in the early part of the 20th century. That fear persists. Deputy Chief Minister Surinder Kumar Choudhary, claimed that local land ownership was shrinking and pointed out that a retired Indian Police Service official had purchased land at “two tourist places” recently. He also reiterated local apprehensions about jobs, “Outsiders have been given jobs in government departments. Where will the local population go?”

With statehood fully restored, the elected government will have the power to enact a domicile law that would prevent outsiders, with some exceptions involving public good, from buying land in the state. Certain category of jobs in the state can in principle be reserved for locals.

It remains unclear how far the Modi government will go in restoring statehood to J&K. Will it short-change the state government by keeping some crucial competencies with the Centre? If the election of Donald Trump as US president eases the pressure on India on Kashmir and on improving ties with Pakistan, then statehood in J&K could come in instalments rather than at one go.

(Bharat Bhushan is a Delhi-based journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.