Will Nitish Kumar upset Opposition unity?

Nitish Kumar’s future course of action will be pivotal to how the Opposition fares in the Lok Sabha polls later this year.

Will Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar spring a surprise once again by changing sides after failing to become the prime ministerial face of the Opposition alliance I.N.D.I.A.? This is a million-dollar question before the 28-member alliance despite constant denials by his Janata Dal-United (JDU).

Bihar’s political circles are abuzz over Kumar’s possible moves despite denials from his party. Bihar’s Deputy Chief Minister Tejaswi Yadav, who belongs to the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), which is the power behind the throne with 79 members in the 243-member Assembly, cancelling his visit to Australia is an indication that there is more to it than meets the eye.

Seventy-two-year-old Nitish Kumar is an ambitious leader, equally cool, and cunning as also cautious, although he has attracted the sobriquet ‘Paltu Ram’ from his detractors. 

At the same time, there is no denying that by becoming the Chief Minister on August 10, 2022, for the eighth time in 22 years, Kumar has dominated Bihar’s politics — with or without the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) — and with or without the RJD.

Kumar, the longest-serving Chief Minister among the allies in I.N.D.I.A., might not have said a word about his feeling isolated, but, those close to him insist that he disliked how the name of Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge was floated as I.N.D.I.A.’s prime ministerial candidate on December 19.

The Congress’ top brass including Kharge and Rahul Gandhi have been made aware of Kumar feeling left out. A meeting of the Congress leaders from Bihar convened by Kharge a fortnight back had witnessed some leaders making it plain that all efforts needed to be made to pacify Kumar in the changed situation to keep I.N.D.I.A. united. A leader even claimed that Kumar had become a far bigger leader than RJD chief Lalu Prasad in Bihar after carrying out the much-talked-about caste census.

Kumar taking over as the JDU chief on December 29, replacing loyalist Lallan Singh looks like the first step in his Lok Sabha strategy which is expected to be unveiled in the month ahead. There are many ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ on Kumar’s future course of action, but if he moves away from the Opposition alliance, it would mean fresh polls for the Assembly too along with the Lok Sabha polls. The term of the current Assembly expires in November 2025.

Kumar’s supporters insist that he had been playing on the front foot on the issue of Opposition unity and he was the first Opposition leader to have convened the conclave in Patna which set the ball rolling for the exercise. They have also been pitching for a prominent role for their leader in the I.N.D.I.A. grouping. 

About six years back, Kumar left the Opposition high and dry by switching over to the BJP ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. In August 2022, Kumar sprang a surprise on the BJP by joining hands with the RJD and retaining the chief ministership with Yadav becoming his Deputy Chief Minister.

Undoubtedly, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah would not be averse to doing a deal with Kumar though he has remained a slippery and difficult customer. His strength is that he holds the key to the Bihar riddle where the BJP has failed to throw up a leader despite making deep inroads into this key state. Currently, Bihar is the weak link for the BJP in the Hindi heartland.

Right or wrong, a section in political circles believes that Kumar is in touch with the BJP's top brass through Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha and JDU leader Harivansh, who had not resigned from the position despite Kumar parting ways with the BJP. 

Unlike in the last Assembly, Kumar is weak in the current legislature as the BJP made good use of Chirag Paswan and his Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) to bring the JDU tally down to 45. The Mahagathbandhan including the RJD, the Congress, and the Left parties secured 110 seats in the 243-seat legislative assembly.

Reports had it that some JDU MLAs were staunchly against having any truck with the NDA. Talk in political circles is that the sudden removal of Singh as the JDU chief was due to his ‘growing closeness’ with the RJD. Some of his well-wishers say that Kumar’s possible parting of ways with the Opposition will earn him only ridicule. Kumar’s future course will be pivotal to how the Opposition fares in the Lok Sabha polls later this year.

(Sunil Gatade and Venkatesh Kesari are senior journalists.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.