Karnataka may witness seven times more Covid-19 positive kids in third wave than the previous wave

If nobody follows behavioural norms, then even doubling the vaccination would not prevent a third wave in Karnataka

A possible third wave of the Covid-19 epidemic in Karnataka may witness seven times more Covid-19 positive children compared to the kids infected during the second wave, Bangalore based scientists have alerted on the basis of a sophisticated modelling exercise.

They estimated that a third wave could be averted if the rate of vaccination is doubled along with strict compliance to the behavioural norms such as mobility restriction, masking and physical distancing mandates, and crowd control measures.

Under certain special circumstances, the daily confirmed cases of children (age 0-11 and 12-17 years) at peak could be on an average seven times more than the corresponding daily confirmed cases at the peak of the second wave, they reported in a new study, noting that such findings could help shape public health strategies in the coming months.

Read | Over 68 crore Covid vaccine doses administered in India so far: Centre

For instance, the state can set up registries to track the kids who may develop MISC (multi-system inflammatory syndrome in children) due to Covid-19 or make arrangements for adequate paediatric ICU beds.

"The study is not to scare but to prepare. Even if they develop Covid-19 infection, most of the kids would not require a hospital stay. The seven times more estimate is on average, and it could range between three and ten,” Giridhara Babu, an epidemiologist at the Indian Institute of Public Health and one of the co-authors told DH.

Researchers from the Indian Institute of Science and IIPH conducted the modelling exercise following an ensemble-forecast approach using 972 models and Karnataka specific data to find that a new wave would be inevitable if compliance to the Covid-appropriate behaviour was partial.

If the compliance is good like what was followed during the lockdown, then even the emergence of new immune-escape Covid-19 variants beyond September is unlikely to induce a new wave.

But if nobody follows the behavioural norms, then even doubling the vaccination would not prevent a third wave in Karnataka.

On the positive side, increasing the daily vaccination rates reduces the peak active caseload and consequently, the hospitalisation, ICU, and oxygen requirements also decrease.

The state on Saturday gave more than 3.5 lakh shots, which according to the study needed to rise between 4.8 lakh and 5.6 lakh to reduce the chances of a third wave and lowering the active caseload.

Read | Covid-19: Teachers, students scramble to cover lost ground

“If we assume that there is no antibody waning at least for 180 days, then, a new wave is predicted only at the beginning of next year, even if a new variant emerges before September 2021,” says the study that is yet to be peer-reviewed but released in an online archive.

Though a new wave is predicted in a few scenarios, the active caseload is very minimal with the doubled vaccination rate. If a new variant does not emerge until the end of October 2021, then a new wave can be suppressed by doubling the inoculation.

With the present rate of vaccination (during the study period in July), the active caseload would be as high as 200K if the new variant emerges after October 2021, the study said, underlining the necessity of vaccinating the entire population by December 2021.