Modi-Biden: A warm embrace, but how long will it last?

Sumit Ganguly. Credit: Special Arrangement

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was denied a visa to the United States in 2005 over allegations of his failure to stop a pogrom in his home state of Gujarat, is now being accorded the rare honour of not only a state visit but an opportunity to address the American Congress for the second time. Much is at stake in this visit for both India and the US.

Modi had received an enthusiastic welcome during his visit to the US in September 2019, when he and President Donald Trump had jointly appeared at a stadium in Houston. Trump, in turn, had been feted in Gujarat with considerable fanfare in February 2020. The two reciprocal visits however did not yield much.

Modi’s tour to the US next week, on the other hand, promises to yield significant tangible benefits for both sides. India has already agreed to purchase $3 billion worth of drones from the US. Besides, the US is likely to give its nod to GE to make jet engines in India for the combat aircraft of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited.

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Both these defence deals come at a crucial time for India. Since the security threat from China is unlikely to abate anytime soon, the acquisitions of both defence items will give India a margin of safety. They will also help India reduce its dependence on Russian weaponry.

Diminishing its dependence on Russian arms supplies should be of some significance for New Delhi. First, the highly uneven performance of various forms of Russian military equipment in Ukraine should give Indian defence officials pause about their reliability and efficacy. Second, it has already become evident that Russia, at least in the foreseeable future, cannot be considered to be a wholly dependable supplier of either weapons or spare parts. Its own needs, even if the Ukraine war comes to a close, will remain considerable. Third, while India has managed to either circumvent or avoid the US sanctions for its continuing trade with Russia, especially in petroleum, it is clear that the Biden administration’s or the US Congress’ patience is not infinite. At some point, the US is likely to lower the boom on India.

Read | Beyond Modi-Biden meeting, India-US relations will need constant tending

Two other issues could also come to dog the otherwise steady improvement in the US-India strategic partnership. First, if the brutality of the Russian actions in Ukraine continues to mount, significant segments within the administration and the US Congress are likely to adopt a tougher stance on India’s unwillingness to abandon its studied neutrality on the war. India’s reasons for maintaining its hands-off perspective may well have sound reasons. Nevertheless, those may not find continued sympathy within the key elements of the US government.

Second, while many in India’s present political establishment may cry foul, the country’s retreat from its own, cherished democratic practices and norms is of growing importance within American civil society, not to mention among key Congressional constituencies. If democratic backsliding in India is perceived to be worsening, pressures could well build on the Biden administration to pull back from its steady embrace of India.

The BJP and its supporters in the Indian diaspora in the US, however, see the visit as an opportunity to boost Modi’s brand abroad ahead of the upcoming state and national elections.

(The writer is a Distinguished Professor of Political Science at Indiana University, Bloomington, USA and is currently a Visiting Professor at the Institute of Politics at Heidelberg University, Germany.)