Election surprise in Pakistan and what it means for India

In an unexpected turn of events in Pakistan, with 256 results declared out of 265, Independents backed by Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party secured 100 seats in the National Assembly (NA), marking a landslide victory in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provincial assembly with 90 out of 113 seats, and stood neck to neck (129 vs 133) with the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) in the 361-seat-strong Punjab provincial assembly (PA). Balochistan too witnessed yet another fractured mandate, as the Peoples Party of Pakistan (PPP), Baloch nationalist parties (BNP-Mengal), and the Jamiat ul Ulema-e-Islam (Fazlur Rehman) emerged victorious in various constituencies.

Though the Sharif family scions were able to win their seats from Lahore, both in the NA and PA, other party stalwarts like Rana Sanaullah, Khurram Dastgir, Khwaja Saad Rafique have been defeated. The overall tally of PML (N) in the NA stalled at 73. The PPP has won 54 seats, mostly from Sindh and a few traditionally held feudal seats from south Punjab (Multan).

Both Asif Zardari and Bilawal Bhutto Zardari were victorious, though the latter lost in Lahore. Breakaway faction leaders from Imran Khan’s PTI like Jehangir Tareen of the Ishteqam-e-Pakistan Party (IPP) and Pervez Khattak of PTI (Parliamentarians) lost badly. The Mohajir Quami Movement- MQM (Pakistan) has won 15 seats from Karachi.

This result is a big blow to the military establishment. It may have weakened Asim Munir’s position at its helm. It reflects the anger of the electorate, especially its younger voters against the persistent harassment and victimization of the PTI. Nevertheless, the Army is unlikely to retreat from its controlling role, to determine who will become the Prime Minister. As the last reports came in, PML (N) leaders met PPP’s Asif Zardari in Lahore. They have now been summoned to Islamabad for last-minute efforts to cobble together a coalition that could work toward a majority in the 'hung' NA. Some Independents may be pressured not to remain loyal to PTI and join some such grouping.

It also does not mean that Imran Khan will be coming out of jail any time soon, though recent judgments against him will be challenged in higher courts.

After a new government is formed, civil-military relations will remain fractious. The civilian prime minister will be heading a weak, tenuous coalition. When the Special Investment Facilitation Council (SIFC) was set up by the previous coalition government, Asim Munir was allowed to have a decisive say in its handling. Differences may arise now on the handling of economic policy and over appointment of the finance minister.

The present DG, ISI Lt. Gen Nadeem Anjum is on an open-ended extension. Munir will have to decide whether he can be replaced now. The civilian Prime Minister is unlikely to have a say in this appointment. He may have to merely rubber stamp Munir’s choice, which will be conditioned by shifting power equations within.

Implications for India

For some time now, a section of civil society in Pakistan has favoured the normalisation of ties, especially the opening of trade with India. Nawaz Sharif spoke on February 9 about the need to mend relations with neighbours.

Speaking at the Islamabad strategic dialogue in March 2021 then Army Chief, Gen Bajwa contended, 'national security was no longer solely a function of armed forces'. While protecting the country from internal and external threats, he claimed, Pakistan "ended up spending a lot of money at the expense of human development". He indicated, the country "was ready to resolve all outstanding issues with our neighbours through dialogue, in a dignified and peaceful manner". He qualified, however, that "unsettled disputes" were "dragging this region back to the swamp of poverty and underdevelopment". "Without the resolution of Kashmir dispute through peaceful means, this process of sub-continental rapprochement would remain susceptible to derailment due to politically motivated bellicosity (of India)". Nevertheless, he felt, it was "time to bury the past and move forward", stressing the importance of putting `our own house is in order’ (economically), "after having overpowered the menace of terrorism and extremism".

In more recent times, the Pakistan Army’s traditionally belligerent view of India has been re-asserted. Speaking at the Pakistan Institute of Strategic Studies, Islamabad (May 2023), Lt. Gen (retd) Khalid Kidwai, architect of Pakistan’s `full spectrum nuclear deterrence’, warned a “target-rich India” that Pakistan retained the liberty of choosing targets to respond forcefully under its retaliatory doctrine of `Quid Pro Quo Plus’. Earlier, speaking at the Royal United Services Institute, UK (Dec 2021), he had referred to `India’s failed air strike against Balakot, as an irresponsible military adventure.’ This only confirms the persistence of the strong anti-India mindset in the Army.

How Pakistan’s Army reacts to changes in India, especially the elections in Jammu & Kashmir (J&K) and the restoration of statehood there (whether before or after elections), will need to be observed. An insecure Asim Munir will be in no position to make any visionary departures. Though the current terrorism situation on Pakistan’s western front may deter any new adventurism to disturb the status quo along the Line of Control (LoC), India has no good options, only “less bad” options in the context of continuing low-level support to non-state elements operating from across the border. It would be best not to be complacent in this regard.

Amidst persisting domestic political instability in Pakistan, a lot will depend on how an Indian government wants to respond to a new, weak civilian dispensation there, behind which lurks a hostile Army.

(The writer retired as Special Secretary at the Cabinet Secretariat of the Government of India.)