Prachanda to be Nepal PM, Oli’s return as king-maker may give China an edge against India

Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' is set to take oath as the new prime minister in Kathmandu on Monday, with support from K P Sharma Oli, who had ratcheted up Nepal’s territorial row with India in 2020, apparently at the behest of China.

Prachanda has been appointed as the Prime Minister of Nepal as per the Article 76 Clause 2 of the Constitution, according to a statement issued by the President's Office.

“Warmest congratulations Comrade Prachanda on being elected as the Prime Minister of Nepal. The unique relationship between India & (and) Nepal is based on deep cultural connect & (and) warm people-to-people ties,” Prime Minister Narendra Modi posted on Twitter, adding: “I look forward to working together with you to further strengthen this friendship.”

Oli’s emergence as the king-maker at the end of a day of dramatic developments in the coalition politics in Kathmandu, however, is likely to cause unease in New Delhi. The chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist), or the CPN (UML), is also likely to return as the prime minister in 2025, if his counterpart in the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre) makes way for him adhering to the deal struck on Sunday.

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India's relations with Nepal had suffered a setback after the Oli government had in 2020 ratcheted up Nepal-India dispute over Lipulekh-Kalapani-Limpiyadhura area in 2020 – at a time when the Indian Army had been resisting the Chinese People’s Liberation Army’s aggressive moves in eastern Ladakh.

Oli had also got a new map, showing nearly 400 sq km of India’s areas as part of Nepal, endorsed by the parliament of the country.

The relations between the countries had returned on track after Oli had been dethroned and Sher Bahadur Deuba of the Nepali Congress had taken over as the prime minister in July 2021.

After Deuba on Sunday refused to allow Prachanda to lead the new government for the first half of its five-year tenure, the CPN (MC) leader decided to withdraw his party from the coalition, which it had forged with the Nepali Congress in 2021 to remove Oli from the office of the prime minister in Kathmandu.

With Oli readily agreeing to let Prachanda take over as the prime minister immediately and continue to be at the helm of the government till 2025, the CPN (UML) and the CPN (MC) struck a deal by evening.

Prachanda then staked a claim to form the new government and President Bidya Devi Bhandari appointed him as the prime minister.

Deuba and Prachanda as well as Madhav Nepal of the CPN (Unified Socialist) had vowed before the recently held parliamentary elections that they would keep the five-party alliance – the other two constituents being the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party and Rashtriya Janamorcha – alive after the polls. Even when the results of the polls had started pouring in late last month, they had vowed to stay together.

The NC emerged as the single largest party with 89 seats in the 275-member Pratinidhi Sabha, the lower House of Parliament of Nepal. The CPN (UML) secured 78 seats, while the CPN (MC) bagged 32.

Prachanda apparently has the support of altogether 169 members in the Pratinidhi Sabha. Apart from the CPN (MC) and CPN (UML), the Rastriya Swatantra Party, Rastriya Prajatantra Party and Janata Samajwadi Party, which have 20, 14 and 12 seats in the House, also extended support to him. He also claimed support of eight parliamentarians of the Janamat Party and the Nagarik Unmukti Party as well as three independents.

India's relations with Prachanda and his CPN (MC) improved over the past few years. The ruling BJP hosted him in New Delhi in July.

What is likely to trigger concerns in New Delhi is the revival of the alliance of the two biggest communist parties of Nepal – a development which might give a strategic advantage to China.

Prachanda, who had led an ultra-leftist insurgency in Nepal from 1996 to 2006, had once worn on sleeves his ideological allegiance to the Communist Party of China. He had chosen to visit China first after becoming the prime minister of Nepal in 2008, although all of his predecessors in the past half-a-century had come to India on first official visits as premiers.

When he had taken over as the prime minister for the second term in 2016, Prachanda, however, made it a point to visit India first.