Republicans carry ballot gains to State Houses

Buoyed by strong election showings on the national level, Republicans appear poised to break up Democratic control of state governments in Minnesota and Michigan, and possibly take full control of the Pennsylvania Legislature.

Coupled with unexpected gains in Democratic strongholds like Vermont, the results of Tuesday’s elections point to a strengthening of the Republican Party’s grip on power at the state level. If the current returns hold, Republicans would have a state government trifecta — control of the governor’s office and both legislative chambers — in 23 states. Democrats would have 15, a loss of two from the last election cycle.

“Republicans appear to have translated their good night at the top of the ticket to state legislative races as well,” Bill Kramer, vice president and counsel of MultiState, a state and local government relations firm, wrote in a postelection analysis Wednesday.

Democrats did appear to break the Republican supermajority in the North Carolina Legislature. And they were hopeful of gaining one seat in the Arizona Senate, which would create a 15-15 tie and give Gov. Katie Hobbs, a Democrat, more leverage. They also made noticeable gains in Wisconsin, after the state Supreme Court threw out Wisconsin’s gerrymandered legislative maps.

Yet despite record spending, Democrats fell short of their goal of building on their successes in the 2022 midterm elections to flip several chambers.

One branch of state government that did not see any change in overall party numbers was the governor’s office. Out of 11 states with races Tuesday, eight were wide open, with no incumbent running. But there were no upsets, and the current configuration of eight Republicans and three Democrats in those states did not change.

It wasn’t that long ago — the late 1990s, in fact — when most states had legislative chambers controlled by two different parties, Kramer said in an interview. But that changed after the 2010 midterms, when most states had a single party dominating both houses. Increasingly, Republicans began to dominate those local contests.

Democrats bounced back in 2022, taking control of four state legislatures and parlaying that power into laws related to abortion, labor, voting rights and more.

But given what happened Tuesday, 2022 may well have been an anomaly.

“This election is a bit of a reversal of 2022 for the political parties in the states,” Kramer said.

The biggest surprise was Vermont, where Republicans were on track to gain more seats in the state than they had in a decade. Blaming the Democrats for pushing a far-left agenda that exacerbated cost-of-living concerns, the Republicans broke the Democrats’ supermajority, which confers the ability to override a governor’s veto.

That will boost the agenda of Gov. Phil Scott, a moderate Republican who cruised to reelection Tuesday.

Saying that voters chose “balance,” Scott — who said Tuesday that he had voted for Vice President Kamala Harris — posted on the social platform X that Vermonters “told us they can’t afford the direction the Legislature has been going, and it’s time for Montpelier to make affordability priority No. 1.”

Perhaps not surprisingly, some of the most fiercely contested legislative races unfolded in the swing states that were viewed as key to the presidential race.

In Michigan, Republicans regained the majority they had earlier lost in the state House, and signaled that they would focus on the economy, education and public safety.

“With a Republican majority, Michigan will have a stronger voice fighting for the values of hardworking families and addressing the issues that matter most — safe schools and neighborhoods, an affordable economy, and a government that provides value for dollars,” Matt Hall, the House Republican leader, said in a statement.

In Minnesota, Republicans were on course to tie the House, while Democrats won a Senate special election to preserve a one-seat majority. Democrats had previously held a 68-64 edge in the House, shepherding a sweeping agenda that helped make Gov. Tim Walz a progressive star. In the Senate, a Democratic senator representing an affluent area west of Minneapolis resigned this year to seek a congressional seat, leaving the chamber tied at 33-33.

“Minnesotans are ready to move on from the expensive two years of Democrat one-party rule,” Lisa Demuth, the House minority leader, said in a statement before the election.

Until Tuesday, Pennsylvania had been the only state in the country with a divided legislature. On election night, Senate Republicans preserved their slim majority, as expected. The House remained a toss-up, though Republicans appeared to have an edge.

Democrats fared better in North Carolina. In the governor’s race, Josh Stein, the state’s Democratic attorney general, crushed Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, a Republican who had been widely criticized for his extensive record of incendiary remarks. And local Democrats won several closely watched statewide races, like superintendent of public instruction, though Mike Causey, the Republican insurance commissioner, withstood a fierce challenge — and the fallout from Hurricane Helene — to win a third term.

Democrats also appeared to break the Republican supermajority in the North Carolina Legislature, which had enabled Republicans to override the veto of Gov. Roy Cooper, a Democrat, on abortion and other issues. But in the chamber’s most expensive and closely watched race, state Rep. Tricia Cotham, who had unexpectedly switched her party affiliation from Democrat to Republican, appeared to win by fewer than 300 votes over Nicole Sidman, though a recount seemed likely.

Even before the election, some Republican politicians in the state appeared ready to deal with a different political reality.

“If Gov. Stein decides it is in his political interest to help rural communities, I will be more than happy to assist him with that,” Owen H. Strickland II, the Republican mayor of the town of Bailey, said in an interview Wednesday. “The accomplishments will be more difficult if the political calculus is assisting the Democrat strongholds.”

In Arizona, Republicans appeared likely to add one seat to their slim majority in the House. Democrats, though, were hopeful that they would tie the Senate. If so, that would lead to a power-sharing arrangement that could make life less difficult for Hobbs.

One of the brighter spots for Democrats was Wisconsin, where they were anticipating a gain of 10 seats in the Assembly and four in the Senate, thanks to new redistricting maps. They did not win a majority in the Assembly, as they had hoped, but were still encouraged.

“Thanks to fair maps and a smart strategy, the GOP’s stranglehold on Wisconsin’s Legislature is coming to an end,” Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said. “Republicans have been put on notice: The DLCC is poised to make Wisconsin a future Democratic trifecta.”