Trump takes narrow lead over Harris in US presidential polls survey

Washington: Republican presidential candidate and former president Donald Trump has taken a narrow lead over his Democratic rival and Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of the November 5 elections, according to a survey.

A national survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal said that Trump is now leading Harris by two percentage points, 47 per cent to 45 per cent. Similarly, as per a CNBC All-America Economic Survey, Trump holds a 48 per cent to 46 per cent lead over Harris within the poll’s 3.1 per cent margin of error, which is unchanged from August.

In the seven battleground states, Trump leads 48 per cent to 47 per cent, within four per cent margin of error for that portion of the poll, the news channel said.

According to RealClearPolitics, which tracks all major national and regional polls, Harris has a slender lead of 0.3 percentage points over Trump at the national level. On the other hand, Trump has a lead of 0.9 percentage points in the battleground states. The battleground states for the 2024 presidential elections are Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia.

Kalshi, an American financial exchange and prediction market based for future events like elections, where legalised betting is taking place, has given Trump a lead over Harris. According to this betting market, Trump has 61 per cent chances of winning the election, while Harris has 39 percent.

The Wall Street Journal said views of Harris have turned more negative since August, when equal shares of voters viewed her favourably and unfavourably. “By contrast, views of Trump have turned rosier. Voters recall his time as president more positively than at any point in this election cycle, with 52 per cent approving and 48 per cent disapproving of his performance in office—a four-point positive job rating that contrasts with the 12-point negative rating for Harris,” the financial daily reported.

Similarly, CBS News said Trump has improved his favourability ratings. “His -13-point net favourability rating (positive minus negative) from August has improved to -6 nationally. Views on Harris are only a bit less negative at -10, compared with -8 in August. (She had risen to +3 in September in the NBC poll, but now appears to have given up her post-convention gains.) Harris fares better in the battleground states with a -5 net favourability rating, equal to Trump’s,” it said.

“Trump’s advantage is because he’s winning men by more than he’s losing women,” said Micah Roberts, partner with Public Opinion Strategies, which served as the Republican pollster for the survey. “It’s a difference because of younger men, and the advantage among younger men is strong, and it’s just not as strong for Harris among younger women, and older women especially,” he told CNBC.

Meanwhile, more than 31 million Americans have already voted nearly 12 days ahead of the general elections. Of these 13.6 million have used “in-person” while 17.7 million have turned in their mail-in-ballots. Among them include former president Barack Obama.