Will Ranil Wickremesinghe survive the September 21 Presidential elections?

Chennai: Ranil Wickremesinghe is often dubbed as the “ultimate survivor” in Sri Lankan politics. The 75-year-old managed to get himself elected as the country’s President in 2022 with support from the powerful Rajapaksas, who had to resign following a popular uprising against them.

Ranil was then the lone member representing the United People’s Party (UNP) in Sri Lanka’s Parliament.

He buried the hatchet with the Rajapaksas to enlist the support of the Sri Lanka People’s Party (SLPP) and continued to run the government and achieved considerable success in slowly pulling the country out of the deep economic crisis.

Two years later, the six-time Prime Minister, who lost the Presidential polls twice to Chandrika Kumaratunga and Mahinda Rajapaksa in 1999 and 2005 respectively, faces one of his toughest political battles as he seeks votes in the name of “continuity” in the September 21 Presidential polls.

Ranil was expecting the election to be a cakewalk as he hoped that the SLPP and Rajapaksas would back him like they did in 2022. However, the SLPP fielded Mahinda’s elder son, Namal, as its candidate, making the battle tough for Ranil, who is trailing behind Sajith Premadasa and Anura Dissanayake of the JVP in the opinion polls.

Though Ranil has managed to wean away a considerable number of SLPP MPs and leaders to his camp, he still lacks the support base he needs to win the election.

For a long time, the President, who is a darling of India, and the West, thought his backing by the international community and his “performance” in the last two years would help him win over the people, but that is not to be if one goes by popular opinion and pre-poll surveys.

Ranil’s long-time confidants and colleagues are now backing Sajith of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), who lost the Presidential polls in 2019 to Gotabhaya Rajapaksa.

Moreover, several parties representing minority communities like Tamils and Muslims, who constitute 20 percent of Sri Lanka’s population, have also declared support for Sajith, adding to the woes of Ranil. High taxes and no major improvement in the lives of people would also come at the disadvantage of Ranil, observers say.

While opinion polls say Sajith and Anura could get about 35 per cent votes each, Ranil is placed in the third position with about 24-25 per cent.

N Sathiya Moorthy, a Chennai-based policy analyst with rich experience of covering Sri Lanka, told DH that the September 21 election is the toughest battle for Ranil and Sri Lankans will be surprised if he emerges successful.

“Though he is a political survivor, there is a lack of trust in the man by his own colleagues. He was and is dependent on the Rajapaksas. People seem to be unwilling to support him despite his claims of ensuring political stability and economic revival. His victory is possible only if undecided voters of about 30-40 per cent support him en masse,” he said.

However, Sathiya Moorthy said opinion polls show his popularity rising, but the question is will he maintain the momentum to clinch the Presidency. “Sri Lankan politicians think Ranil is too smart for them. They have issues in trusting him,” he added.

This is also one of the fiercely contested elections in recent times in Sri Lanka with about 40 candidates in the fray, though the contest will narrow down to four of them, Sajith, Ranil, Anura, and Namal. Experts say as of now, it looks like no candidate will poll the mandatory 50 per cent of votes needed to be declared as the winner.

Col (retired) R Hariharan, who was part of the Indian Peacekeeping Force (IPKF) to Sri Lanka, says the contest for now is between Sajith and Anura with Ranil in the third position.

“Ranil wants to be on par with Sajith and Anura and he is banking on Tamil and Muslim votes. These communities will vote according to their region and economic status. Moreover, Muslims are not happy with Ranil for his handling of the situation post-Easter blasts in 2019,” Hariharan said.

Though a good negotiator and an administrator, Ranil lacks “enough support” on the ground, Hariharan said, adding that though Sajith is “less competent” when compared to Ranil, he has made huge gains through a good campaign.

Will Ranil survive this battle too? Answers to this and more will arrive on September 22.