The BJP flag.
Credit: PTI Photo
Exactly a year ago, in Chhattisgarh, the BJP successfully tested a prototype for contesting state assemblies with fewer than 100 seats. Last month, the template worked perfectly well in Haryana. The idea will take its third test flight in the upcoming Jharkhand assembly polls.
If one were to call it that, the Chhattisgarh model works on the BJP’s ability to maximize consolidation in favorably aligned constituencies.
In Jharkhand, ostensibly to mop up anti-JMM votes, the BJP, unlike 2019, has stitched tactical alliances with smaller outfits and individuals.
A breakup with All Jharkhand Students Union, a sub-regional party with pockets of influence among Kurmis in the Chota Nagpur belt, had cost BJP half a dozen seats in the last assembly polls. This time though, the party has conceded 15 seats to the allies including AJSU, Janata Dal (United), and Chirag Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party. Two giant killers in state politics- Saryu Roy, who defeated former chief minister Raghubar Das, and Raja Peter, who vanquished Shibu Soren, are contesting on the JD(U) symbol.
But that’s just half the battle won.
Because the success of the Chhattisgarh model critically hinges as much on the division in non-BJP votes. In small constituencies, where the margins of victory are in three digits, hyper-local election management with ‘vote-cutters’ doing the job can at times be the difference between victory and defeat.
Hemant Soren can take heart from the fact that, unlike Chhattisgarh and Haryana, currently fewer regional parties in Jharkhand can disrupt the applecart. Those in the fray are aligned either with the NDA or the I.N.D.I.A. bloc.
But the JMM leader may still have to closely watch out for the local strongmen and independents, who can tilt the scales in a close election.
The last-lap tactical maneuvers notwithstanding, after losing power to the JMM-Congress combine in 2019, the BJP has also had to bring about some fundamental changes in its approach to Jharkhand.
Having gauged the limitations of non-tribal politics in the state with 39 percent SC-ST votes (12 per cent SC and 27 per cent ST), the party promptly sent former CM Raghubar Das on a gubernatorial assignment to Odisha last year. Former CM and a prominent tribal face, Babulal Marandi was brought into the BJP fold and made the leader of the opposition in the state assembly. To underscore its tribal credentials, the BJP since 2023 has nominated tribal CMs in the bordering states of Jharkhand, Odisha, and Chhattisgarh.
The recent induction of former chief minister, Champai Soren, is also aimed at ensuring Hemant Soren does not become the sole repository of the tribal votes. Towards that end, the BJP has given tickets to ‘outsiders’ like former CM Madhu Koda’s wife Geeta and JMM founder Shibu Soren’s daughter-in-law Sita Soren.
Interestingly, there is another uncanny similarity between the way BJP contested the Chhattisgarh elections and its current campaign in Jharkhand. As in Chhattisgarh, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma is managing the party’s elections from Ranchi.
Sarma, since his appointment, has raked up the alleged “threat to demographic changes” in the tribal-dominated regions of Santhal and Kolhan divisions from “illegal immigration from Bangladesh”. In Chhattisgarh, the perceived threat was said to be from “Rohingyas from Myanmar”.
Besides JMM and BJP, there are a few other variables that may impact the outcome of the Jharkhand polls.
The Congress, which has been allocated one-third seats in the I.N.D.I.A. bloc, is the elephant in the room.
In 2019, the 16 seats that Congress won ensured the anti-BJP alliance crossed the halfway mark. This time around, in most urban seats Congress and BJP are locked in a direct duel, and sitting MLAs from the grand old party are up against local anti-incumbency.
Moreover, the recent tidings from Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana, may not inspire much confidence in the JMM leadership on Congress’ ability to contain BJP in urban centres.
Assembly Elections 2024 | The Maharashtra Assembly polls will take place against the backdrop of a fractured political landscape in the western state where the Shiv Sena and NCP will be going up against the Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar factions, even as the BJP and Congress try to make their mark. Meanwhile, in Jharkhand, the JMM faces a new challenge after Hemant Soren's recent arrest and Champai, a longstanding party member, joining the BJP. The Haryana election resulted in a shock loss for Congress, which was looking to galvanize on the Lok Sabha poll performance, while J&K also saw the grand old party eventually stepping away from the cabinet, with Omar Abdullah's JKNC forming government. It remains to be seen if the upcoming polls help BJP cement its position further or provide a fillip to I.N.D.I.A. Check live updates and track the latest coverage, live news, in-depth opinions, and analyses only on Deccan Herald.
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