The message hidden in the fine print of Wednesday's Bengal's panchayat election results which TMC is sweeping, shows that the opposition has expanded its space far beyond the last rural polls in 2018.
The fact that while last time round in 2018 some 34 per cent of the seats were won uncontested by the TMC, this year the number of seats which went uncontested was a small fraction, making the fight far “tougher” for the ruling party.
This shift in voting pattern could mean the results of 2024 may well be different from what both the ruling party and the principal opposition would like to see in the Parliamentary elections.
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“While the opposition managed to get just 20 per cent of the gram panchayat seats last time, this time round they have taken about 27-28 per cent of the seats till now,” said Rajat Roy, a senior political commentator and an advisor of the think tank Calcutta Research Group told PTI.
“Violence this time round was also not one sided like in earlier years. All parties indulged in unethical practices and in attacking their rivals. In fact, the ruling party saw more deaths among its workers. While any death is condemnable, the nature of violence has changed and this changes the ground reality significantly,” Roy pointed out.
While the BJP has managed to win nearly 10,000 seats in gram panchayats, the Left and the Congress together have won nearly 6,000 seats of the 63,219 seats which were contested.
This was against CPI(M) and Congress together winning about 1500 seats in 2018 and BJP about 5,800 gram panchayat seats out of 48,650 seats contested then.
“There has been a distinct Left resurgence which you can see in the election results, especially in Murshidabad, Nadia, Hooghly and Bardhaman districts, … it really started in the by-elections to Ballygunge constituency earlier when we roundly defeated BJP and proved what we have always been saying - that we are the real alternative to TMC.
“Change of tactics, focusing on specific target groups like migrant workers, poor peasants and the service class which commutes daily from villages to big cities, putting up younger candidates and using youthful campaigners helped spread our message,” CPI(M) leader Saira Shah Halim told PTI.
The presence of a large number of Trinamool rebel candidates many of whom won among the over 2,000 independents who managed to win gram panchayat seats also helped the opposition candidates as votes got divided.
“The resurgence story of the Left-Congress is remarkable. However this phenomenon also means that there will be a division of the anti-incumbency vote with BJP and that can work in favour of the TMC in the 2024 polls,” Roy said.
In the 2021 elections, TMC had won 49.59 per cent of the popular vote on the plank of Bengal and Bangaliana being under threat from the “invading forces of the BJP”.
While BJP managed to get most of the anti-incumbency votes, garnering a 37.39 per cent of the vote share and 77 seats, the Left and Congress drew a blank, getting just 5.66 per cent and 3.03 per cent of the popular vote, respectively.
In this election, the BJP has increased its gram panchayat seats from 5,776 out of 48,650 seats contested in 2018 or about a 12 per cent seat share to nearly 10,000 as of 5 pm on Wednesday out of 63,219 seats which were up for grabs this time or about 16 per cent of the seats.
BJP’s national secretary Anupam Hazra explained the better showing, stating, “Corruption taint against the ruling TMC, higher number of nominations filed by BJP this time round” worked in favour of his party.
The minority vote after shifting from the Left to TMC after the Singur agitation in 2007 has remained solidly behind the ruling party. However, observers said this panchayat poll trends have shown signs of the community choosing tactically to support the strongest non-BJP candidate instead of just rooting for the TMC.
This, they pointed out as examples, had helped Congress win nearly 1,100 gram panchayat seats in Murshidabad and CPI(M) win approximately another 600 seats in that minority dominated district.
Shivaji Pratim Basu, political commentator who teaches at Calcutta University, pointed out that this time round another new phenomenon with the potential to change minority voting patterns has emerged.
The minority-dominated new party “ISF has also made inroads into TMC’s hold over minority voters” in pockets of south Bengal, he said.
ISF MLA Nawshad Siddique, who is leading his newly formed party too told PTI, that the “myth that a certain community is a vote bank of the ruling party” has been proven wrong by the current elections.