The contest for Himachal Pradesh, which goes to polls on November 12, is set to be an interesting one with experts waiting to see if the state repeats history by voting the incumbent party out of power.
The elections, a bipolar contest between the BJP and Congress, will bank on local MLAs' popularity and their development-related works. Most importantly, the contest will be a litmus test for the grand old party to see if it still has the ability to wrest power from the BJP.
All of the top ten candidates who won in the 2017 Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections with the highest margin of votes were from the BJP and several of these defeated sitting Congress MLAs from their constituencies.
The top 3 candidates who won with the highest margin of votes were from Mandi and Kangra districts and belonged to the Scheduled Caste category.
Vinod Kumar of the BJP won the Nachan constituency in Mandi with the highest differential of over 15,800 votes against INC rival Lal Singh Kaushal.
Interestingly, in the previous Himachal Pradesh Assembly Elections in 2012, Nachan was won by the same candidate, Vinod Kumar, however with a margin of just over 3,000 votes, a 5.5 per cent winning margin, far lower than in 2017.
Inder Singh from Balh from the Mandi district had defeated sitting Congress MLA Prakash Chaudhary with over 12,800 votes, winning with the second-highest vote margin.
In 2012, Prakash Chaudhary had won the Balh seat with a margin of over 3,100 votes or 6.1 per cent.
Mulkh Raj from Baijnath constituency (Kangra) trumped rival Kishori Lal with a margin of over 12,600 votes, the third-highest. In the previous election, Kishori Lal had won against Mulkh Raj with over 6,600 votes.
Chief Minister Jairam Thakur was also among the top 10 to win with the largest margin of votes. He contested and won from his seat, Seraj, in Mandi district with a difference of 11,254 votes. Thakur won in 2017 with a much higher margin than in 2012, when he defeated Congress candidate Tara Thakur with just over 5,000 votes.
| Constituency No. | Constituency Name | Candidate | Winning Party | Runner-up Candidate | Runner-up Party | Candidate Category | Total valid votes polled +NOTA | Margin | Margin (%) |
| 28 | Nachan | Vinod Kumar | BJP | Lal Singh Kaushal | INC | SC | 62,893 | 15,896 | 25.97 |
| 34 | Balh | Inder Singh | BJP | Prakash Chaudhary | INC | SC | 58,778 | 12,811 | 22.35 |
| 20 | Baijnath | Mulkh Raj | BJP | Kishori Lal | INC | SC | 53,869 | 12,669 | 24.19 |
| 58 | Paonta Sahib | Sukh Ram | BJP | Kirnesh Jung | INC | GEN | 61,467 | 12,619 | 20.93 |
| 32 | Dharampur | Mahender Singh | BJP | Chandershekhar | INC | GEN | 49,746 | 11,964 | 24.88 |
| 29 | Seraj | Jai Ram Thakur | BJP | Chet Ram | INC | GEN | 63,900 | 11,254 | 17.94 |
| 13 | Jaisinghpur | Ravinder Kumar | BJP | Yadvinder Goma | INC | SC | 50,896 | 10,710 | 21.46 |
| 47 | Ghumarwin | Rajinder Garg | BJP | Rajesh Dharmani | INC | GEN | 61,395 | 10,435 | 17.47 |
| 14 | Sullah | Vipin Singh Parmar | BJP | Jagjiwan Paul | INC | GEN | 70,486 | 10,291 | 14.96 |
| 33 | Mandi | Anil Sharma | BJP | Champa Thakur | INC | GEN | 55,253 | 10,257 | 19.26 |
Among others in the top ten is Sukh Ram, who defeated Congress candidate Kirnesh Jung in Paonta Sahib with over 12,600 votes and Mahender Singh who retained his Dharampur seat with 11,964 votes. Ravinder Kumar (Jaisinghpur), Rajinder Garg (Ghumarwin), Vipin Singh (Parmar Sullah) and Anil Sharma (Mandi) all won with a margin of over 10,000 votes.
Himachal Pradesh goes to polls on November 12, 2022 and the counting of votes will take place on December 8.