Prime Minister Narendra Modi waves at supporters as he arrives for an event organised for laying of foundation stone of various developmental projects, in Gwalior.
Credit: PTI Photo
If a recent opinion poll is an indication, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is heading for trouble in five assembly elections scheduled to be held towards the end of 2023. The Congress can be ecstatic and the I.N.D.I.A camp can rejoice.
According to the opinion polls, the BJP might lose in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Telangana, and may scrape through Rajasthan, though the Congress has made major inroads there in the last two months. usually, if a party gains an upswing closer to an election, it will likely consolidate these gains and win when the votes are polled.
In Rajasthan, in an opinion poll conducted in July, the BJP was ahead of the Congress in 43 seats. In the September poll (the latest poll conducted) that lead has come down to just four seats. Now it seems to be an evenly poised contest between the two national parties.
In Madhya Pradesh, the opinion poll suggests that the Congress is heading for a major victory. In Telangana, the BJP which once was aiming to topple the K Chandrashekar Rao-led Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) government, has now slipped into third position; the Congress is improving its chances which is cause for concern for Rao. In Chhattisgarh, the BJP does not stand a chance. Speaking to this author, a political observer said that the ‘BJP has given up on Chhattisgarh and as a matter of strategy, is fighting to save the government in Madhya Pradesh and win Rajasthan; if that happens then the BJP can have some solace’.
The BJP is worried as it believes that adverse results in the assembly elections will impact the 2024 general election results, and can weave a narrative that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s charisma is on the decline. This would be a big boost to the I.N.D.I.A camp, and heighten its expectations of forming a coalition government at the Centre.
By hook or by crook
The BJP has become the prisoner of its own politics. The central leadership’s obsession with power is now adversely impacting the party. The party which talked about ‘Chaal, Charitra, and Chehra’ (intentions, character, and face), and claimed to be a ‘party with a difference’, has turned into an election machine which will go to any length to win an election/form a government. Rules are bent, and leaders are poached. For the BJP, ends justify its political actions.
In 2018, the BJP did not have the mandate to form the government either in Karnataka or in Madhya Pradesh. This did not stop the BJP, from forming the governments in both states — in both cases after toppling the incumbent governments through its infamous ‘Operation Lotus’. Now, the BJP is facing the heat. Similar tactics were used in Rajasthan, but it failed. In Chhattisgarh, the Congress has been comfortably in the saddle due to the huge majority it has in the assembly and Chief Minister Bhupesh Baghel’s shrewd sense of power politics.
Hang up your boots
Since 2014, the BJP has heavily relied on Modi, and he has overshadowed strong state leaders within the BJP. These include Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan, former chief ministers Vasundhara Raje (of Rajasthan), Raman Singh (of Chhattisgarh) and Yediyurappa (of Karnataka).
Singh and Yediyurappa have given the backseat. The BJP’s effort not to project Chouhan and Raje as chief ministerial faces in the upcoming assembly polls is the party leadership’s signal asking them to hang up their boots. In Gujarat, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh, the old war horses are no longer in the picture. The defeat in Karnataka can be attributed to the way the party’s central leadership treated Yediyurappa. The BJP’s slide in the opinion polls could reflect growing disapproval among voters towards these developments.
The Indira Gandhi template
An objective assessment of Modi’s impact on the BJP is not possible till he is in power, but the over-centralisation of power around Modi will take the BJP the Congress’ way. The BJP, which used to pride itself in collective leadership and a consultative process in decision-making, no longer churns out ideas and decisions. The decisions are rumoured to be made in the PMO and the party nods in agreement. Young leaders who are unlikely to question this top-down approach are promoted and senior leaders within the party are sidelined.
In this, Modi seems to be adopting Indira Gandhi’s template. To secure her position within the Congress, merit was discarded, and coteries were promoted. The party paid for Indira Gandhi’s insecurities, and successive party chiefs followed her formula rather than taking corrective measures.
Now, the Congress is trying course correction. This is owing partly to the realisation that regional leaders are better placed to win elections in this era of identity politics and partly because the 'high command' is not in a position to assert itself.
Two paths that do not meet
The upcoming assembly polls offers two contrasting political streams — the BJP which is following a path of centralisation of power, and the Congress which is stressing on decentralisation of power. Modi pushes ‘vocal for local’ for employment generation, but does not extend this approach to empowering state leaders. Rahul Gandhi is the opposite where though the effort is to take on the BJP at the national level, it is done by empowering the state leaders. The electoral victories in Himachal Pradesh and in Karnataka are good examples of this approach. Local leaders were given primacy and central leaders were in a supportive role.
In contrast, the BJP has sidelined its local leaders and projected Modi as a solution to all the problems.
The BJP must realise that under this centralisation of power under Modi it is following the Indira Gandhi template — it must also not forget that the Congress is yet to fully recover from that decades-old mistake.
(Ashutosh is Editor, Satyahindi, and author of Hindu Rashtra)
(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH)