The BJP's Congress todo campaign in Goa - managing to hive off two-thirds of its legislators successfully - has, this time round, everything to do with the Congress' national Bharat Jodo Yatra.
At a press conference to welcome the eight legislators who joined the BJP on September 14, Goa Chief Minister Pramod Sawant said the Goa exercise was the start of a "Congress chhodo, BJP jodo" yatra.
The moves to split the Congress and get over two-thirds of its 11 legislators into the BJP had begun in July 2022. Acting with uncharacteristic aggression and speed, aided by leaks about the defection moves from within the BJP itself, the Congress was able to avert a crisis at the time.
With 20 legislators of its own, the support of two Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party and three independents, the ruling BJP was in no need of further numbers after the February 2022 assembly polls. The only impediment to the functioning of the Pramod Sawant government was his rivalry with his number two in the cabinet, Vishwajit Rane, which delayed government formation by a month and led to Rane cornering a number of weighty portfolios.
But what is clear now is that the Goa defections and splitting of the Congress's Goa unit was not a matter of capacity or need, but choreographed timing and optics. The July defections were timed to demoralise the Congress nationwide on the eve of a Parliament session, the President's election and the first meeting of the state legislative assembly. The attempt at the time was to pull all 11 Congress MLAs into the BJP fold, with the shock value of a possible Congress-mukt Goa on the eve of its monsoon session, providing both the incentive and the thrust for the exercise.
Ease of defections, mergers and splits in Goa's small 40-seat house, provides the ideal opportunity and optics. The launch of the Congress' Bharat Jodo campaign seems to have put the Goa crowd back into action. Goa's easy access to purchase and transfer of individualistic legislators, who are more self-made than party-made, and a transactional politics that see legislators switch sides effortlessly - provide maximum return on investment in terms of nationwide optics.
"It was clear that the BJP needed a drastic surgical strike to demoralise the Congress during its flagship Bharat Jodo campaign, which could have repercussions on the 2024 election. Goa is the best and easiest place to make that move. And by this move, as the chief minister has said, they have launched a counter slogan of Congress chhodo-BJP jodo," says senior journalist Kishor Naik Gaonkar.
Political movements arguably began a week ago, with former Congress chief minister and its legislator Digambar Kamat making a swift visit to Delhi on September 5, though he had vociferously denied the visit had anything to do with politics. While Michael Lobo, the former BJP legislator who joined the Congress just weeks before the polls, and was at the forefront in the July moves, along with Kamat, visited the Christian shrine at Vailankanni.
The July defections failed when the Congress leadership managed to prevent the group of six Congressmen willing to join the BJP from garnering the further two legislators to complete the eight it needed to form a two-third split and escape the anti-defection law. Another version has it that negotiations had broken down at that time based on demands for ministerial berths, corporation chairmanships and other collaterals.
While the Goa numbers were ready and waiting in the past few months, the issue had dropped from the radar of central ruling decision makers until the momentum of the Bharat Jodo march began to be felt. Insiders have it that the moves were cemented overnight. In swift moves, on Wednesday morning, the eight Congress MLAs met in the Goa Assembly and passed a resolution to split the Congress Legislature Party and merge with the BJP. In the afternoon today, they were formally inducted into the BJP.
Rival opposition parties, the Aam Aadmi Party, Trinamool Congress and Revolutionary Goans Party, all competing to eat into the Congress vote share, predictably went to town, attacking the party for its legislator's betrayal and blaming voters for trusting the party. The Goa Forward Party, a Congress ally, attacked the defections as evil and the merger as a sad day for democracy with the purchase of MLAs like sacks of grain. "The chief minister wants no opposition in Goa because his government is a complete failure. There are scams in every department, so to run Goa, he wants to manufacture a majority," charged Goa Forward Party leader Vijai Sardesai.
With its legislators - Digamber Kamat, Michael Lobo, Delilah Lobo, Kedar Naik, Rajesh Faldessai, Alexio Sequeira, Rudolf Fernandes and Sankalp Amonkar - now with the BJP, the Congress is left with just three MLAs - Carlos Alvares Ferreira, Altone D'Costa and Yuri Alemao. The opposition benches are reduced to seven MLAs.
But while the Congress has taken a hit with this latest split, compounding the one in 2019, when ten of its legislators split and merged with the BJP, the party has managed to bounce back each time. Editor and political analyst Pandurang Gaonkar points out that the Congress, on the eve of the 2022 election, was down to just one legislator from the 17 it won in 2017, yet managed to "rise like a phoenix" and won 11 seats in 2022.
There's far more disquiet in the BJP and RSS, though, over the new inductions and the growing Congress quotient within the BJP, at the cost of its original party cadre. A likely cabinet reshuffle will possibly see three BJP ministers dropped to make way for the new entrants. Sawant did not deny the possibility of a cabinet reshuffle at his press conference, only saying no decision had been taken yet. With its numbers now up to 28 from 20 and the ruling side comfortably placed with 33 legislators in its corner, the problems (and jostling) of plenty come into play. The family of central BJP minister Sripad Naik cannot be happy with the new developments, given the entry of the Congress MLA from their sphere into the BJP. "Many may not like it, but nobody from within the BJP will make a noise to challenge it. There may be some noises, but everyone is competing to show their loyalty to the centre," says journalist Kishore Naik Gaonkar.
It is unlikely any moves will be made against Rane in the cabinet, not with the considerable clout he enjoys in interior Goa and its numbers for the 2024 election. Still, the new arithmetic on the ruling side reduces the importance of many of its independent and regional allies. As a senior and former BJP minister-turned Congress chief minister, now back in the BJP, and one with an RSS pedigree to boot, Digamber Kamat's entry also puts him in an important place, and his supporters were jubilant.
This time around, the slow-burn defections have surprised nobody, least of all Goa's voters.
(Pamela D'Mello is a journalist based in Goa)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.