In 2017, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections took place against the backdrop of demonetisation and surgical strikes on a terror camp in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK). If the Bharatiya Janaya Party (BJP) was successfully able to spin the demonetisation issue as poor versus wealthy, the surgical strikes were used to whip up an anti-Pakistan mood that got translated into an anti-Muslim mood on the ground. No chief ministerial candidate was named, and it was in Prime Minister Narendra Modi's name the election was fought. He was seen both as the saviour of the poor, who had, with a single stroke of the pen, deprived the rich of their wealth, the saviour of the truly nationalistic Indian, and protector of the Hindu religion.
So what is different this time?
In 2017, Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav's government was on trial. In 2022, it is Yogi Adityanath's record, and to a lesser extent, that of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, that is under scrutiny, even though the BJP leaders have spent more time revisiting Akhilesh Yadav's five years than the achievements of the BJP government.
Modi did not visit UP as many times as in past elections. His no-show at a pre-announced Bijnor rally on the plea that the weather was unsuitable for travel by helicopter became a talking point, especially as it was a sunny day. Locals in Bijnor said that the Local Intelligence Unit (LIU) had alerted the Prime Minister's Office that villagers planned to release stray cattle (that have been destroying standing crops) at the rally venue to express their anger at the government's poor handling of a problem that is a crucial issue across the state. The PM decided not to risk a potentially embarrassing situation. Later, he acknowledged the problem at a public rally in Unnaao. He promised if the BJP returned to power in UP, a new system would be put in place to reduce the trouble that stray animals cause. "The dung of a cow, which does not give milk, will be used to generate income," he said. The PM did not mention that this scheme, the Gobar Dhan Yojana, was launched in April 2018 under the Swachh Bharat Mission (Gramin), with little success.
Indeed, the conversations this time have been dominated more by bread and butter issues – widespread unemployment, privatisation leading to loss of jobs in the public sector, skyrocketing prices of essentials, the stray cattle menace, the failure of online teaching - than by those that polarise communities, despite the BJP's best efforts to place Muslims in the dock once again through its coded law and order discourse. This is not to say that the Hindutva narrative has vanished; it remains a strong undercurrent, but caste has bounced back as a significant factor.
Unemployment has been a running theme right across UP, particularly among the youth. Almost every young person I met, whether already college-educated or still in college – cutting across caste and religious lines – spoke of the lack of jobs. Virtually all of them said their first preference was for a government job. Even those with land said they were not keen to farm, and those making a living by running a small kirana shop or some similar enterprise said they didn't count it as a job. And thanks to the pandemic, many of those who had shifted base to the cities and were working in the private sector, or as factory hands, have lost their jobs.
When Modi promised two crore jobs, he was thinking of Gujarat, where entrepreneurship has long been a top choice. But in UP, as in Bihar, West Bengal and Odisha, a job only means a government job. For the OBC youth, there is an additional grouse: despite reservation, they are not getting jobs. In July 2021, OBC candidates held a massive protest in Lucknow; of the 69,000 teachers recruited in 2020 by the Basic Education Department, they said, the OBCs got less than four per cent, whereas the prescribed quota is 27 per cent.
For uneducated youth in rural areas, dependent on daily labour, the poor functioning of the MGNREGA (the rural employment guarantee programme) has been a blow: even where it is working erratically, wage payment is often delayed by as much as six months.
For staunch BJP supporters, all these features are irritants, but the conversation always concludes with, "But we want Yogi Adityanath back as chief minister", and reference to two issues as reasons for backing his government. The most important is their belief that the law and order situation has improved, that all the criminals (read Muslims and Yadavs) are behind bars, and that their wives and daughters can walk freely even late in the evenings without fear. The second is gratitude for the free rations that ration card holders and Antyodaya cardholders are receiving.
But just as BJP supporters dismiss unemployment and high prices as a permanent feature of life that the government cannot be held responsible for, those opposed to the BJP, especially those voting for the Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal combine, view law and order and rations very differently. The Muslims ask why the lynchings that many in their community have been subjected to, for instance, are not listed as crimes; whether their demonisation on social media that has led to attacks on them are not described as crimes. Interestingly, some Brahmins, too, pointed out the one-sided nature of "law and order": criminals from the Thakur community, like Dhananjay Singh, is openly campaigning and is not behind bars, despite the host of charges against him, including that of murder. Vikas Dubey, a Brahmin, they said should have been tried lawfully and not eliminated in an encounter.
If Hindutva has been the BJP's most potent weapon, its efforts over the last few years to create a constituency of labharthis – or beneficiaries – is also paying its dividends. Apart from the Grameen Aawas Yojana, toilets, gas cylinders, etc., this pandemic season's biggest gift, especially to the very poor and marginalised, was the free rations. However, some critiqued even this, but when that critique came from Brahmins or Yadavs, I didn't pay much attention to it. But it was repeated by an old Baghel woman in a village in Hathras district. The Baghels are counted as a Scheduled Caste community. She described the rations as bheekh, or alms, and said it would have been better if the government had provided employment: "People should work hard and earn a living, not hold their hands out for free rations, like beggars. How can you say Modi and Yogi are doing good work when they can't create jobs?" A Jatav man added to this: "You give us Rs 400 worth free rations, and then increase the price of gas cylinders by Rs 600. You give with one hand and take away with the other. Are we fools?"
In 2017, the BJP's upper caste vote base was intact; added to it was a carefully knitted formidable non-Yadav OBC plus non-Jatav coalition, with some educated Yadavs even deserting the SP for the BJP, in the name of Hindutva. This time, there are some cracks in the Brahmin vote and erosion in the non-Yadav OBC coalition.
The desire of the Yadav community to be back in power is also propelling the SP-RLD-led coalition. In the last few elections, the Yadav vote had split thanks to Akhilesh Yadav's feud with his uncle Shivpal Yadav, whose candidates had cut into the SP vote. This time, they are united, and Akhilesh Yadav had a free hand in allotting tickets. Muslims, the one group that has suffered the most under Yogi Adityanath's government, is determined not to allow their votes to be divided. In addition, the farmers' agitation, while not entirely dampening the enthusiasm of the Jats for the BJP, has undoubtedly divided them; the death of the RLD's Ajit Singh has also resulted in some sympathy for son Jayant Choudhary. Thirdly, Akhilesh Yadav's attempt to wrest the non-Yadav OBC votes from the BJP has resulted in some cracks in that coalition.
The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), which many see as a spent force, still retains its hold over 18.2 per cent: in the village after village that I visited, I found that Mayawati's caste fellows, the Jatavs, remain unwaveringly loyal to her. They stressed that the BSP is the only party "where their votes matter, where they are counted – hamari ginati sirf udhar hoti hai."
The Congress, under Priyanka Gandhi's leadership, may gain in percentage points, but it is unlikely to win too many seats.
Finally, as the elections wind down, reports suggest that polling has been low in urban areas that are BJP strongholds and higher in rural areas, where the SP could fare better. That the BJP is in trouble is also suggested by a TV report on News 18 (Hindi): villagers in an eastern UP were seen brandishing fingers which they said had been forcibly inked by the local BJP workers to prevent them from voting. They also said they had each been given Rs 500 for this.
All this has ensured that the elections are not one-sided this time. Even BJP supporters have described these elections as a kante ki takkar, a closely fought battle between the BJP and the SP-RLD combine.
(Smita Gupta is a journalist.)
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