Decoding the BJP’s rise to power in the tribal belt of Tripura in the 2018 elections

The Assembly elections in Tripura, which goes to polls on February 16, will be a keenly watched contest ahead of next year’s Lok Sabha elections, especially given the dramatic changes in the state’s political landscape over the past decade.

Tripura, a Left bastion for decades, voted the BJP to power in spectacular fashion in the 2018 Assembly elections, despite the saffron party’s failure to secure a single seat in the 2013 polls.

This sudden success enjoyed by the BJP, which won 44 of 60 seats in the northeastern state in the 2018 polls, was the result of a multi-pronged strategy, of which an important and indispensable part was securing the support of the tribal communities in the state.

How the BJP established itself in tribal strongholds in Tripura:

Tripura, where one-third of the population is tribal, has 20 seats reserved for Scheduled Tribes (STs) out of the 60 Assembly seats, thus making a political party’s performance in these seats crucial to securing power.

The BJP, perhaps well-aware of this fact after its dismal performance in 2013, allied with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT), which, at the time, enjoyed support from the tribal communities as it had been agitating for a separate state.

In addition to the alliance, which helped improve the BJP’s image among the state’s tribal population, the saffron party also promised to address issues important to the tribal electorate and the state in general, including unemployment, land rights, measures to preserve tribal culture, among others.

Also Read | Key constituencies to watch out for in Tripura Assembly polls

In fact, the saffron party reportedly made no less than 299 promises in its 28-page manifesto ahead of the 2018 elections, and this, coupled with its alliance with IPFT, helped endear it to the tribal voters in the state.

Beyond these direct measures, the popularity of former BJP leader and former Chief Minister Biplab Kumar Deb and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s towering stature on the national arena helped the saffron party project itself as a viable and competent alternative to the Left, which had been facing anti-incumbency after being in power since 1993.

The result? From a measly 1.54 per cent of votes in 2013, the BJP alone secured a whopping 43.5 per cent of votes in 2018, with its alliance partner IPFT bagging nearly 8 per cent.

This surge in the BJP’s popularity across the state was reflected in the tribal seats too: the saffron party won 10 of those 20 seats while the IPFT won another 8, accounting for 18 of the 44 seats secured by the alliance that year.

Looking ahead:

This time around, however, the calculus is different, with Pradyot Deb Barma-founded Tipra Motha bringing in an unpredictability with its demand for a ‘Greater Tipraland’ state.

Further, in a first, the Congress is contesting in partnership with its old enemy, the CPI(M), in hopes of making a comeback from the decimation of 2018.

The BJP, for its part, has reunited with the IPFT for this year’s polls, setting up a three-way contest in the hill state.