Haryana Assembly Polls 2024: How BJP snatched victory from overconfident Congress

Congress' overwhelming confidence in victory failed to translate public support into actual votes.

At the time of writing this article, it is certain that the BJP is set to form the government in Haryana. Most exit polls indicated a comfortable return for the Congress party, which was so confident of victory that discussions about potential chief minister candidates began even before the vote count, suggesting it would secure an absolute majority.

The Haryana Vidhan Sabha consists of 90 seats, with 17 reserved for Scheduled Castes. In the 2019 Assembly elections, the BJP won 40 seats while the JJP secured 10. The BJP and JJP then formed a post-poll alliance to govern. Towards the end of their tenure, BJP effected a change of guard in the state and ended its four-and-half year alliance with the Jannayak Janta Party (JJP) led by Dushyant Chautala. The BJP changed its leadership, appointing Nayab Saini as CM, replacing Manohar Lal Khattar.

In 2019, Congress suffered a surprise loss, perceived as a weak and divided force in the state. However, in the years that followed, Congress gradually regained ground, capturing five out of ten seats in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

Acting quickly, the BJP organised itself and prepared for the elections from day one. Despite facing voter fatigue after a decade in power, the party focused on its organisational strength and improved coordination between the party and the government.

The state BJP revitalised its organisation and set an agenda as early as January, deploying “Modi ki Guarantee” vans to tour villages. These vans highlighted government schemes. The BJP's emphasis on Direct Benefit Transfers and a slew of welfare announcements fostered a favorable mood for the party. Sensing the rural electorate's sentiment, the BJP announced it would procure 24 crops in the state at Minimum Support Price (MSP). The saffron camp also targeted the backward classes voters with the promise of a monthly assistance of Rs 2,100 to women, 2 lakh jobs and gas cylinders for Rs 500. An increase in annual income limit for creamy layer from Rs 6 lakh to Rs 8 lakh also helped the party consolidate backward class votes in its favour.

The central BJP leadership swung into action just before the polls, with Prime Minister Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah visiting the state multiple times, holding rallies, and addressing over 150 large public meetings. In contrast, Congress conducted only 70 rallies.

This time, the BJP also performed exceptionally well in Jat-dominated western Haryana, where non-Jat votes appeared to coalesce in large numbers for the party. It successfully retained its stronghold in non-Jat areas of eastern and southern Haryana.

The party also benefitted from projecting Prime Minister Modi’s image and how he has elevated India’s position on the global stage, consolidating its support base across caste and class lines.

The BJP also skillfully chose the right candidates, fielding 60 fresh faces to counter anti-incumbency. Additionally, it created a perception that jobs and opportunities would concentrate in Rohtak if the Congress, led by Bhupinder Hooda, regained power.

Notably, the BJP did not heavily rely on a hard Hindutva campaign in Haryana but instead emphasised rural development and pro-poor policies.

Meanwhile, Congress's overwhelming confidence in victory failed to translate public support into actual votes.

Haryana Assembly poll 2024 results| Check constituency results here

J&K Assembly poll 2024 results| Check constituency results here

Assembly Elections 2024 | In the first assembly polls since the Lok Sabha elections, Narendra Modi and the BJP face a rejuvenated and vindicated Opposition in the Haryana assembly polls. Meanwhile, Jammu and Kashmir is voting after almost a decade and it remains to be seen how the abrogation of Article 370 has impacted the political landscape of the Valley. Check live updates and track the latest coverage, live news, in-depth opinions, and analyses only on Deccan Herald.

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