Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Analysts feel it is advantage BJP in 13 constituencies which vote in Rajasthan in 2nd phase

What seems to be wagging tongues for BJP is Vasundhara Raje who seems to have concentrated herself only in Dushyant’s constituency and has not campaigned anywhere else although she was on the list of BJP’s star campaigners list. The two-time chief minister has been sidelined since Rajasthan Assembly polls in December 2023.

Jaipur: Fate of four stalwart BJP leaders including union ministers would get sealed in ballot boxes as Rajasthan votes in 13 crucial constituencies tomorrow amid rising temperatures.

With a 6 per cent dip in voting turnout in the 12 constituencies which went to polls on April 19, there seems to be an effort on part of parties to get voters out. In 2019, the voting percentage was 67.9 per cent in Rajasthan, a relatively high turn-out.

The 13 constituencies which vote tomorrow for the Lok Sabha elections include Ajmer, Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, Pali, Jodhpur, Barmer, Jalore, Udaipur, Banswara, Chittorgarh, Rajsamand, Bhilwara, Kota and Jhalawar-Baran.

Union ministers Gajendra Singh Shekhawat and Kailash Choudhury are contesting from Jodhpur and Barmer respectively. Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla fights from Kota and BJP state president C P Joshi tries his luck from Chittorgarh. All these seats have been with the BJP for the last two times in 2014 and 2019. Other than these seats, the nine other constituencies going to polls have also been held by BJP since the last two elections.

While Shekhawat and Joshi are comfortably placed, Birla may face some trouble with his former colleague and recent turncoat to Congress, Prahlad Gunjal, who may not win but will garner votes, bearing in mind he is from the region and had the solid backing of Vasundhara Raje. Birla won Kota with a margin of 2.79 lakh votes. Shekhawat defeated Ashok Gehlot’s son Vaibhav Gehlot by over 2.74 lakh votes.

In Barmer, Kailash Choudhury is locked in a triangular contest with Congress’ Ummeda Ram Beniwal and Independent candidate Ravindra Singh Bhati. Young and brash Bhati has been drawing huge crowds, especially the youth and is said to be popular. After being denied the BJP Assembly ticket from Sheo, he fought independently and won.

BJP has been winning the seats of Chittorgarh, Bhilwara, Rajsamand, Udaipur, Jhalawar, Pali and Ajmer since the last two times with huge margins and it is being speculated they would retain these seats. In Chittorgarh, the vote margin was 5.76 lakh, in Bhilwara 6.12 lakh, Rajsamand 5.51 lakh, Pali 4.81 lakh, Jhalawar 4.53 lakh, Udaipur 4.37 lakh and Ajmer 4.16 lakh in the 2019 election.

Banswara is one constituency which would be monitored closely as it has an interesting twist. Mahendrajeet Singh Malviya, influential tribal leader of the region, who crossed over from Congress to BJP is supposed to be the strongest candidate. BJP has been winning this seat for the last two elections. What has made the contest interesting is that Congress would support the Alliance candidate Bharat Adivasi Party (BAP) candidate Rajkumar Roat instead of its own candidate Arvind Damor, who refused to withdraw his candidature despite Congress’s instructions. Damor was made the Congress candidate after the alliance deal did not materialise, although talks were on. Roat, who is a MLA from Chorasi, has focused his campaign on securing the Adivasi rights’ on natural resources. But Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s speech in Banswara about Congress’s intention to redistribute wealth after taking it away from majoritarian Hindus and that Congress advocates the first right on wealth for Muslims, may work in two ways. It may turn voters in BJP’s favour or may just act in the opposite way.

In Tonk-Sawai Madhopur, two time MP Sukhbir Jaunpuriya has been repeated and he faces Congress’s Harish Meena. He won by a margin of 1,11291 votes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi campaigned for him, raising the election pitch by some remarks which, many political parties and civil society members say, should come under hate speech, and has been communal and divisive. Some organisations have written to the EC and police to take action. He said Congress tried to reduce the reservation of SC/ST in Andhra Pradesh as a pilot project and give it to the Muslims and wanted to implement it through the country.

But poll observers say these remarks coming from the highest office of the nation indicate there is a concerted effort to polarise the electorate and indulge in diversionary electoral tactics to influence the outcome of the polls. The low turnout of voters in the first phase has the parties worried.

Meanwhile in Rajsamand, BJP has placed its faith in another royal from the Mewar royal family Mahima Vishwaraj Singh. She is up against Congress’s Damodar Gujjar and is expected to win the seat as people still revere royals in this parts of Rajasthan. In 2019, BJP’s Diya Kumari, who hails from Jaipur royal family, polled over 8,63,039 votes and won by a margin of over 5 lakh votes. She is currently the deputy chief minister and has campaigned for Mahima Singh extensively.

In Jhalawar-Baran constituency, Raje’s son Dushyant Singh would seek re-election for the fifth time. He is up against Congress’s Urmila Jain Bhaya, who is a leader and social worker and also wife of Congress leader Pramod Jain Bhaya. But Dushyant is one of the strongest candidates of the BJP with mother Raje campaigning extensively for him.

Tongues are, however wagging as Raje seems to have concentrated herself only in Dushyant’s constituency and has not campaigned anywhere else although she was on the list of BJP’s star campaigners list. The two-time chief minister has been sidelined since Rajasthan Assembly polls in December 2023. In a recent interaction with the media, on being asked about crossing 400, Raje had said, "How can I tell you numbers? I have told you that the party leaders want to make a record in elections.”

Poll analyst Narayan Bareth told DH, "It is advantage BJP for most of these 13 constituencies which vote tomorrow. In Barmer, Jalore and Kota, Congress may put up a spirited fight but most constituencies would go the BJP way. In Banswara, while there is internal rift in BJP after Mahendrajeet Singh Malviya was made their candidate, Congress workers may also sabotage the chances of alliance candidate Rajkumar Roat. Only saving grace for Congress would perhaps be that BJP’s margin of win may come down in most of these constituencies as compared to 2019."