Can the BJP retain power in Assam?

The Congress-led alliance is putting up a tougher-than-expected fight against the NDA

The ruling BJP’s anti-Badruddin Ajmal rhetoric is likely to get louder as Assam heads for the second and third phases of polling on April 1 and April 6.

If the tea garden voters -- 17% of Assam’s population -- were the focus of elections for 47 of Assam’s 126 Assembly seats in the first phase on March 27, the next two phases are likely to be fought on religious lines. While the Congress-led grand alliance of seven opposition parties, including Ajmal’s AIUDF, would be banking on the “united Muslim votes” (about 35%) this time, Hindu Bengalis are going to be the target for the BJP and its allies. There are at least 33 constituencies dominated by Muslim voters, particularly in the Barak Valley and western Assam, which borders Bangladesh and where the “anti-foreigner” politics plays a crucial role in almost every election. Hindu Bengalis, on the other hand, play a key role, too, in at least 25 seats in the same region.

“Badruddin Ajmal is a threat to the composite Assamese culture because he is trying to propagate the Miya language and culture (of Bengali-speaking Muslims), which is against the Assamese culture,” Assam’s Finance Minister and BJP strategist Himanta Biswa Sarma told DH in an interview on March 12. Sarma has been repeatedly attacking Ajmal, something which is seen by many as the BJP’s polarisation tactics to unite Hindu votes in favour of its candidates.

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From Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah to BJP president JP Nadda, top leaders of the saffron party have claimed in almost all poll rallies in Assam so far that the Congress and AIUDF would lay the “red carpet” for ghuspetias, or infiltrators from neighbouring Bangladesh. “Can Congress stop infiltration with Ajmal on their lap?” Modi has insinuated in almost every rally he has addressed in Assam so far.

According to political analysts, these tactics were adopted by the BJP ahead of the first phase of polling to create a sense of fear in the minds of voters belonging to indigenous Assamese and other ethnic communities in the eastern and northern districts of the state, where the anti-Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) sentiment is strong. The Brahmaputra Valley witnessed strong protest against the CAA in 2019 as the ethnic communities fear that it would reduce them to minorities by giving citizenship to a large number of post-1971 Hindu Bengali migrants from Bangladesh. This posed a threat to the BJP’s prospect in the eastern districts.

“In 2016, in at least 18 seats, BJP candidates won with low margins because of division of Muslim votes between Congress and AIUDF. Also, they won in another 7-8 seats where the Left parties came second. BJP candidates will be defeated easily this time as we are all together. So, BJP is trying its polarisation tactics in desperation,” said a Congress leader in Guwahati.

Sankalps and guarantees

Although the BJP’s election manifesto did not mention the CAA, “a corrected NRC” (National Register of Citizens) figured prominently among its top 10 ‘Sankalps’ (commitments). “Protection of genuine Indian citizens and exclusion of all illegal immigrants to be ensured through this exercise,” said the manifesto. This, according to political observers, meant that BJP was referring to all Hindus as genuine Indian citizens and to all Muslims who came post-1971 as illegal immigrants. Sarma was clear on the CAA and NRC during his interview to DH when he said, “In today’s situation, you can’t think of expelling Hindus back to Bangladesh and Pakistan.”

The BJP has requested the Supreme Court to allow re-verification of 20% of applications of the NRC in the districts bordering Bangladesh and 10% of applicants in the rest of Assam. The BJP manifesto also promised an Assam De-radicalisation Policy and appropriate laws to tackle “Love Jihad” and “Land Jihad.” All these are seen targeted against Bengali-speaking Muslims.

The Congress manifesto, on the other hand, offered ‘five guarantees,’ which included a state law to scrap the CAA. “We will not allow implementation of the CAA, come what may. BJP-RSS has launched an attack on Assam’s ethnic identity, culture and language by bringing in the CAA,” Rahul Gandhi announced at a rally on February 14. Priyanka Gandhi has made the same announcement in the rallies she addressed thereafter in Assam.

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Not just on the issue of CAA, the Congress and BJP are also fighting a ‘hand-out war’, each trying to outdo the other in promising cash and other benefits to voters. The BJP has promised that three million families would be covered under the Arunodoi scheme and the amount of money would be enhanced from Rs 830 per month at present (since November last year) to Rs 3,000 per month. Congress, on the other hand, has promised Rs 2,000 per month into the bank accounts of all housewives if it comes back to power.

The Congress’ other guarantees include free electricity up to 200 units to 70% of Assam’s population, five lakh government jobs in the next five years, and enhancing the daily wage of tea garden workers from Rs 167 at present to Rs 365. The BJP promised two lakh government jobs, grant of Rs 2.5 lakh to all Naamghars (Vaishnavite prayer halls), delimitation exercise to “protect the political rights of the people of Assam” and a mission scheme to make Assam “flood-free” in the next five years.

No CM candidate

Unlike in the 2016 Assembly polls, neither the BJP nor the Congress-led grand alliance has announced their chief ministerial candidate, leading many to believe that there is a lack of consensus on the issue in both camps. Although Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal has been named as the first preference in a few opinion polls, there is strong speculation that Himanta Biswa Sarma is keen to be the chief minister if the BJP returns to power. Sarma was, however, diplomatic when asked: “In BJP, nobody can say ‘I will become the CM, or he will become the CM’. That decision is taken by the Parliamentary Board chaired by the Prime Minister. Our target is to make sure that BJP and our allies win 100-plus seats this time.”

BJP leaders, however, said that most of the candidates contesting this election are loyalists of Sarma and they are likely to demand that Sarma be the next CM.

In the Congress camp, there is no big leader after Tarun Gogoi’s death. His son Gaurav Gogoi and Ripun Bora, president of Assam Pradesh Congress Committee, are said to be the front-runners for the CM’s post. Ajmal has already ruled himself out of the race for the CM’s post. Gaurav Gogoi is a two-time MP and is said to be close to Rahul Gandhi.

Bodoland equation

Bodoland People’s Front (BPF), a BJP ally in 2016, had won all 12 seats in the Bodoland region (Kokrajhar, Chirang, Baksa and Udalguri districts). But the BJP dumped the BPF and has joined hands with the United People’s Party Liberal (UPPL), after its leaders signed the new Bodoland Accord in January last year. The BPF was left with no option but to join the Congress-led grand alliance. “I helped BJP form its government in 2016. This time, I will help Congress. BJP will be defeated for sure,” BPF chief Hagrama Mohilary claimed.

The BPF is contesting in 12 seats in Bodoland and is campaigning hard for Congress candidates outside Bodoland in constituencies having sizeable numbers of Bodo voters. The UPPL is contesting in eight seats in Bodoland. BJP and UPPL are in power in the Bodoland Territorial Council.