Bhajanlal to breathe easy after BJP's good show in Rajasthan

With BJP winning five out of the seven Assembly seats, wresting three of these seats from the Congress fold in Rajasthan, not only is the ruling saffron party on a high but Chief Minister Bhajan Lal Sharma is heaving a sigh of relief and expected to come into his own as he enters his second year of governance.

BJP had faced a major setback after it lost 11 seats out of the 25 in the Lok Sabha polls in May 2024. It had won all 25 seats in the last two Lok Sabha elections. 

BJP’s recent good showing in Haryana has had a spillover effect in neighbouring Rajasthan, as the party has made inroads in Jat-dominated areas, especially Jhunjhunu and Khinwsar. Also, the stranglehold of political families in these areas has been given a jolt. 

Some big leaders from both sides have been shown their place. For the BJP, one sore point of losing Dausa, which was given to senior leader Kirori Lal Meena’s brother Jagmohan Meena, may also be a sort of relief as he would not be able to dictate terms anymore to the state BJP and play his usual traunts. The consequent losses have clearly dented the leadership of Meena.     

Also in trouble would be Congress state chief Govind Singh Dotasra, who would now have to explain the loss of the three seats. In the 2023 Assembly elections, out of these seven seats Congress had four and BJP one. In 2024, the BJP now has five seats and Congress only one. 

Also, voters have put in place the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party’s (RLP) supremo and influential Jat leader Hanuman Beniwal, whose wife Kanika Beniwal lost the Khinwsar seat, which Beniwals have dominated for a long.     

The huge gainer in this political fight is undoubtedly Sachin Pilot, who campaigned for the Dausa candidate, Deendayal Bairwa, and defeated powerful Jagmohan Meena.   

In Jhunjhunu, BJP’s Rajendra Bhambhu defeated his rival Congress candidate Amit Ola with a margin of 42848 votes. With this win, the BJP has managed to erode the political dominance of the Ola family in the area. Ola family has had a grip on the Jat-dominated area with Amit’s grandfather Sis Ram Ola being a five-time MP from Jhunjhunu and eight-time MLA from various constituencies in the district.

While Amit’s father Brijendra Ola won the seat four consecutive times between 2008 and 2023 before getting elected to the Lok Sabha in 2024. Last, the BJP won the seat in 2003. This is a big win for the BJP because in the 2023 Assembly polls. Congress did well in Shekhawati region as the party milked the Centre’s Agniveer scheme for youths. The Shekhawati region under which Jhunjhunu falls, sends the highest number of youths to the defence forces. 

BJP also wrested the Deoli-Uniara seat from the Congress this time with BJP’s Rajendra Gujjar winning over Independent candidate Naresh Meena by a margin of 41121 votes. Congress’s Kastoor Chand Meena has come in third and could secure over 31000 votes. In the 2023 Assembly elections, Congress’s Harish Chand Meena won this seat with over one lakh votes. He is now the MP from Tonk-Sawai Madhopur constituency. Naresh Meena, 45, was arrested after he slapped SDM Amit Chaudhary accusing him of threatening people at a polling booth who were boycotting elections. 

In Ramgarh, BJP wrested the seat from Congress with its candidate Sukhwant Singh winning over Congress’s Aryan Khan with a slim margin of 4000 votes.  Ramgarh has been a Congress stronghold with BJP last winning it in 2013.  

In Khinwsar, Jat leader MP Hanuman Beniwal’s wife Kanika Beniwal lost to Rewatram Danga of BJP, losing the only seat it had. He won with a margin of 13901 votes. This is a major setback for Beniwal as the seat has been almost a Beniwal family stronghold. Hanuman Beniwal won the seat in 2023 and later on became an MP.    

In Dausa, BJP’s high-profile candidate Jagmohan Meena, brother of veteran leader Kirori Lal Meena, lost to Congress’s Deendayal Bairwa by a mere margin of 2300.  Kirori Lal Meena’s resignation episode after BJP lost the Dausa Lok Sabha election and four of the seven seats placed under his charge, which he had said he had promised to deliver for BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, would now see a likely end. His pending resignation is likely to be accepted. 

In Salumber, a tribal-dominated seat, which was with the BJP, has been retained by the party with Shanta Devi Meena winning the seat with a slim margin of 1285 votes. Shanta Devi is the wife of deceased MLA Amrit Lal Meena. She was up against Bharat Adivasi Party’s (BAP) Jitesh Katara. 

In Chorasi, however, BAP’s Anil Katara won with a margin of  24,370 votes defeating BJP’s Karilal Nanoma. This is a BAP-dominated region with its leader Rajkumar Roat, who is now an MP, having won this seat with votes over one lakh. With this win, BAP’s political influence in the region is growing and is likely to be strengthened.    

Five of the seven Assembly seats became vacant after the MLAs, all from Congress and its allies, became MPs in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Two seats Ramgarh and Salumber became vacant following the death of Congress MLA  Zubair Khan and BJP MLA Amrit Lal Meena.  

Winning five seats out of the seven would definitely be a leg up for Bhajan Lal as the outcome comes almost a year after he took over.  Bhajan Lal would now breathe easy. The good showing is like the first public mandate on the year-old BJP government for the novice CM. The BJP government has been constantly called a “parchiwali sarkar” by the Opposition, claiming all instructions come from the Centre and that the bureaucracy is running the show. Sharma’s reputation is going to go up with the outcome and rumours of his being replaced are likely to die down. He would perhaps make his own decisions now, especially on the issue of Cabinet expansion. 

BJP’s new state chief Madan Rathore is also likely to gain with the wins. BJP’s poll plank of transparency in public examinations, action against paper leak mafia, gas cylinder at Rs 450 and claims of creating around 1.11 lakh jobs seemed to have paid off.   

Political observers say Congress has not been able to hold onto its gains made during the Lok Sabha. It's constant harping about “parchiwali sarkar”, and discontent against Bhajan Lal’s government seems to have not resonated amongst the voters. Also, big leaders did not reach all the seats and neither did they ally with smaller parties as before. Clearly, Congress could not build upon the inflating prices, poor road and water crisis.

In the Assembly of 200, BJP now has 119, Congress 66,   Independents 8, BAP 4, BSP 2 and RLD 1