Can Congress win trust of both Brahmins and OBCs?

There was an era when the Congress used to be the number one political choice for the Brahmins. But since the emergence of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and Narendra Modi in 2014, most of Congress’ prominent Brahmin leaders have quit the party. The 'grand old' party is now trying to woo the community once again ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, especially in the Hindi heartland with a focus on regaining the trust of the influential caste group conscious of their rights and entitlements.

All political outfits, including the Congress and the BJP, try to win over this relatively small but traditionally influential caste group which makes up around 4-5 per cent of the population at a pan-India level.

In the politically crucial state of Uttar Pradesh, the Brahmins make up almost 9-10 per cent of the population, the largest chunk among the 'general category' voters. In Haryana, the community accounts for nearly 12 per cent. The Brahmins constitute just about 7-7.5 per cent of the population in Rajasthan, while the community makes up only about 5 per cent in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh — all three election-going states — and just 3.65 per cent in Bihar.

Despite the small numbers, the Brahmins have enjoyed an apex position in the social order. Because of their privileged position in the social hierarchy, they have, since Independence, enjoyed significant political dominance that comes with the power vested through their position in the political hierarchy. Many scholars analyse that the Brahmins form and maintain social networks in ways that subtly preserve their privileges through social and political capital accessed from diverse asymmetrical relations. This is a key reason why almost every political outfit wants the Brahmins on their side.

The BJP's Hindutva juggernaut in 2014 demolished identity-based politics, and sensing the changing political mood of the nation, the Brahmins supported the saffron outfit at the national level, and later at the state level as well.

As the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has accommodated non-Brahmin castes in power structures, with most BJP-ruled north Indian states having non-Brahmin chief ministers, disenchantment among the Brahmins is now visible on the ground. A section of the Brahmins feels the community has not been given its due by the BJP. The Congress hopes to capitalise on this bitterness ahead of the polls.

The Congress is trying to win back the upper castes, especially the Brahmins, through its 'soft Hindutva' strategy aimed at diluting its hardcore 'secular', pro-Muslim image that stuck during the two United Progressive Alliance regimes from 2004 to 2014. This image was politically leveraged by the BJP by labelling it ‘minority appeasement’.

The shift from ‘Na jaat par, na paat par, sthrirta ki baat par, mohar lagegi haat par’ (Don’t vote for caste or community, but for the Hand [Congress symbol] that brings stability) in the 1980s to ‘Jiski jitni sankhya bhari, uski utni bhagidari’ (Bigger the number in the population, bigger the share in politics and economy) in 2023, coupled with 'soft Hindutva', reflects the changes in the Congress' strategy to weave a new social coalition to stop the BJP from winning a third term at the Centre.

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi's caste census plank aims at wooing the Other Backward Classes (OBCs) who drifted to regional 'social justice' parties in the 1990s and to the BJP after 2014. The OBCs form around 63 per cent of the population as per the Bihar caste census.

The Lokniti-CSDS National Election Studies (NES) data show that the BJP's vote share among the OBCs doubled from about 20 per cent in the 2009 Lok Sabha polls to 44 per cent in the 2019 general elections. However, the Congress’ focus on the OBC vote risks annoying the upper-caste Hindus.

To defeat the BJP in the 2024 general elections, along with forging the anti-BJP I.N.D.I.A alliance, the Congress is trying to manage political and social contradictions by building a rainbow social coalition of castes and communities. The Congress’ caste card strategy can face a big challenge from the regional parties in I.N.D.I.A as the caste census plank has the potential to eat up their vote banks which they had snatched from the ‘grand old’ party post-Mandal in the 1990s. The recent spat between the Samajwadi Party and the Congress over seat sharing in Madhya Pradesh indicates the inherent contradictions in the alliance.

The Brahmin vote will be crucial for the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, where they can influence outcomes in dozens of seats. However, regaining their trust will not be easy. The Congress will have to walk a fine line between wooing the OBCs through the caste census while also reassuring the Brahmins that their interests will be protected. 

As the Congress strives to counter the BJP's formidable election machinery ahead of 2024, it navigates a complex path. If it manages to get both sections on its side, the Congress will be reconstructing its once formidable pan-India social coalition. Though this strategy's ability to thwart the BJP's dominance remains uncertain, relying heavily on meticulous execution, the Congress still has a fighting chance if it can build better organisation and narrative.

The coming months will reveal whether the Congress under Mallikarjun Kharge can achieve the challenging task of defeating the BJP in its stronghold.

(Mahendra Singh is a political commentator and teaches Political Science at DDU Gorakhpur University, Uttar Pradesh. X: @MKSinghGkp)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.