<p>Coffee, tea, and chocolate are loved across the world. Some cannot start the day or meet a friend without a cup of coffee or tea. Children love chocolates and many parents comfort their children with a mention of chocolate. But will these commodities become rare and expensive?</p>.<p>The availability and prices of coffee, tea and cocoa are determined by global factors. Climate change could threaten their production across the world.</p>.<p>Coffee: Around 2.5 billion cups of coffee are consumed every day. Coffee is the second largest commodity traded in the world, next only to petroleum oil, and it is cultivated in more than 70 countries. Much of coffee is cultivated in Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Guatemala and India. India produces two types of coffee, Arabica and robusta. Major coffee growing regions in India are Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the North-east.</p>.<p>The area under coffee cultivation in India is estimated to be 4,65,000 ha and it provides livelihood for nearly 1.5 million families. The variation in rainfall, temperature, humidity, soil moisture and nutrient availability impact the growth and productivity of coffee plants. Rainfall occurring after the blossoming stage delays the harvest and also leads to low crop quality. The occurrence of extreme rainfall events with no dry period may lead to low coffee yields and crop damage.</p>.<p>A recent review of studies in 2020 concluded that areas suitable for coffee cultivation could decline by about 50% under moderate climate change projection scenarios by 2050 for both Arabica and robusta. Another study published in the journal ‘Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences’ concludes that the area not suitable for coffee cultivation could be as high as 88% in Latin America, the dominant producer, by 2050.</p>.<p>About half of the land around the world currently used to produce high-quality coffee could be unproductive by 2050, according to a recent study whose findings were published in the journal ‘Climatic Change.’ Coffee is a globally traded product and any impact on it in one part of the world will impact availability and price in the rest, including India.</p>.<p>Tea: Tea is the second most consumed drink globally, next only to water. It is an important agricultural commodity, both commercially and culturally. Tea cultivation is one of the main livelihood options for many countries such as China, India, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Indonesia. In India, the major tea producing states are Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.</p>.<p>The area under tea cultivation in India is estimated to be 5,66,000 ha with Assam being the largest tea cultivating state. Changing climate over recent decades has impacted tea production. Prolonged droughts, excessive precipitation within a short period, temperature extremes, increase in insect and disease infestation, emergence of new insect pest species, and wind velocity are the major climate-related factors affecting tea cultivation.</p>.<p>Studies have shown that variations in temperature and precipitation impact tea yield as well and alter the chemical balance that gives tea its flavour and potential health benefits. The increase in rainfall causes erosion and water logging, damaging root development and reducing yield. Shifts in monsoon seasons are leading to shorter growing seasons and harvests. Studies have also shown that, in West Bengal, farmers are shifting to higher altitudes to combat the effects of climate change. The exposure of tea plants to increasing temperatures is also leading to increased pests.</p>.<p>About 20-30% of tea components are made up of antioxidants and 35-50% account for secondary metabolites. These components are also vulnerable to climate change, which alters the crop’s phytochemical and organoleptic (texture, colour, taste, visual appeal, aroma) properties, which in turn can impact market prices and consumer demand.</p>.<p>Cocoa: This is largely produced in African countries such as Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon, and also in India and Indonesia. In India, cocoa is largely produced in Andhra Pradesh, followed by Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu in an area of around 103,376 ha with a total production of 27,072 tonnes. Studies have shown that the current cocoa producing regions may no longer be suitable for cocoa production in the next 30 years if measures are not taken to combat climate change.</p>.<p>The global demand for cocoa and its byproducts will continue to increase over the next decade. This is leading to research to develop adaptation measures for cocoa production. Climate change, along with unsustainable farming techniques, has led to a decline in cocoa production around the globe and some regions have already become unsuitable for cocoa production. Longer dry seasons, new pests and diseases are reducing the yields and quality, and reducing farmers’ incomes. This will impact the production of chocolate and other cocoa products.</p>.<p>Coffee, tea and chocolate are so much a part of our life that we cannot imagine a day without them. Climate change could impact the yield, production, taste, aroma, health benefits and the prices of these products.</p>.<p>Further, climate change could impact the livelihoods of millions of farmers, traders and processing units. Thus, there is a need for research on how farmers growing these crops could adapt to changing climate. This may require development of new climate resilient varieties, and better water management and processing practices. It is hoped that coffee, tea and cocoa development boards are considering climate change seriously, since research is region specific and could take years. We need to start now.</p>.<p><em>(Ravindranath is a retired professor and Sushma is a research staffer, IISc)</em></p>
<p>Coffee, tea, and chocolate are loved across the world. Some cannot start the day or meet a friend without a cup of coffee or tea. Children love chocolates and many parents comfort their children with a mention of chocolate. But will these commodities become rare and expensive?</p>.<p>The availability and prices of coffee, tea and cocoa are determined by global factors. Climate change could threaten their production across the world.</p>.<p>Coffee: Around 2.5 billion cups of coffee are consumed every day. Coffee is the second largest commodity traded in the world, next only to petroleum oil, and it is cultivated in more than 70 countries. Much of coffee is cultivated in Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia, Ethiopia, Guatemala and India. India produces two types of coffee, Arabica and robusta. Major coffee growing regions in India are Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and the North-east.</p>.<p>The area under coffee cultivation in India is estimated to be 4,65,000 ha and it provides livelihood for nearly 1.5 million families. The variation in rainfall, temperature, humidity, soil moisture and nutrient availability impact the growth and productivity of coffee plants. Rainfall occurring after the blossoming stage delays the harvest and also leads to low crop quality. The occurrence of extreme rainfall events with no dry period may lead to low coffee yields and crop damage.</p>.<p>A recent review of studies in 2020 concluded that areas suitable for coffee cultivation could decline by about 50% under moderate climate change projection scenarios by 2050 for both Arabica and robusta. Another study published in the journal ‘Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences’ concludes that the area not suitable for coffee cultivation could be as high as 88% in Latin America, the dominant producer, by 2050.</p>.<p>About half of the land around the world currently used to produce high-quality coffee could be unproductive by 2050, according to a recent study whose findings were published in the journal ‘Climatic Change.’ Coffee is a globally traded product and any impact on it in one part of the world will impact availability and price in the rest, including India.</p>.<p>Tea: Tea is the second most consumed drink globally, next only to water. It is an important agricultural commodity, both commercially and culturally. Tea cultivation is one of the main livelihood options for many countries such as China, India, Kenya, Sri Lanka and Indonesia. In India, the major tea producing states are Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.</p>.<p>The area under tea cultivation in India is estimated to be 5,66,000 ha with Assam being the largest tea cultivating state. Changing climate over recent decades has impacted tea production. Prolonged droughts, excessive precipitation within a short period, temperature extremes, increase in insect and disease infestation, emergence of new insect pest species, and wind velocity are the major climate-related factors affecting tea cultivation.</p>.<p>Studies have shown that variations in temperature and precipitation impact tea yield as well and alter the chemical balance that gives tea its flavour and potential health benefits. The increase in rainfall causes erosion and water logging, damaging root development and reducing yield. Shifts in monsoon seasons are leading to shorter growing seasons and harvests. Studies have also shown that, in West Bengal, farmers are shifting to higher altitudes to combat the effects of climate change. The exposure of tea plants to increasing temperatures is also leading to increased pests.</p>.<p>About 20-30% of tea components are made up of antioxidants and 35-50% account for secondary metabolites. These components are also vulnerable to climate change, which alters the crop’s phytochemical and organoleptic (texture, colour, taste, visual appeal, aroma) properties, which in turn can impact market prices and consumer demand.</p>.<p>Cocoa: This is largely produced in African countries such as Ivory Coast, Ghana, Nigeria and Cameroon, and also in India and Indonesia. In India, cocoa is largely produced in Andhra Pradesh, followed by Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu in an area of around 103,376 ha with a total production of 27,072 tonnes. Studies have shown that the current cocoa producing regions may no longer be suitable for cocoa production in the next 30 years if measures are not taken to combat climate change.</p>.<p>The global demand for cocoa and its byproducts will continue to increase over the next decade. This is leading to research to develop adaptation measures for cocoa production. Climate change, along with unsustainable farming techniques, has led to a decline in cocoa production around the globe and some regions have already become unsuitable for cocoa production. Longer dry seasons, new pests and diseases are reducing the yields and quality, and reducing farmers’ incomes. This will impact the production of chocolate and other cocoa products.</p>.<p>Coffee, tea and chocolate are so much a part of our life that we cannot imagine a day without them. Climate change could impact the yield, production, taste, aroma, health benefits and the prices of these products.</p>.<p>Further, climate change could impact the livelihoods of millions of farmers, traders and processing units. Thus, there is a need for research on how farmers growing these crops could adapt to changing climate. This may require development of new climate resilient varieties, and better water management and processing practices. It is hoped that coffee, tea and cocoa development boards are considering climate change seriously, since research is region specific and could take years. We need to start now.</p>.<p><em>(Ravindranath is a retired professor and Sushma is a research staffer, IISc)</em></p>