Congress aims to repeat Karnataka victory in MP

With about six months to go for the Madhya Pradesh assembly polls, Kamal Nath has started using the Karnataka template in earnest.

The distance between Bhopal to Bengaluru is about 1,436 kilometres, but since the Karnataka assembly polls, the Congress circles are finding many commonalities between the two state capitals. There is a growing belief that the electoral success of Karnataka can be replicated in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh.

Leading the Congress’ campaign for the upcoming Madhya Pradesh assembly polls is Kamal Nath, a seasoned campaigner and able administrator. The profiles and career trajectories of Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and Nath may be drastically different, but both carry considerable heft in the party circles and are popular in their respective states. With about six months to go for the polls, Nath has started using the Karnataka template in earnest. Selection of party nominees is in full swing, and the Congress hopes to declare at least 80 per cent of its 230 candidates before Madhya Pradesh assembly polls are formally called by the state election commission.

Nath has also loaned services of election strategist Sunil Kanugolu, who helped the Congress script a spectacular victory in Karnataka. Kanugolu is now Siddaramaiah’s adviser and has been given a Cabinet rank. His team is reportedly working around the clock in Madhya Pradesh. Some of the initial survey reports have given a lot of confidence to the Congress. This was evident when, almost three weeks ago, Rahul Gandhi made a dramatic claim that the Congress would be winning 150 seats in the Madhya Pradesh polls.

Careful not to polarise

There are two parts of the Congress’ strategy. The first part revolves around primacy to local issues, anti-incumbency against incumbent Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan and bulk of his party MLAs, and staying away from any bid to polarise the voters. In the past few months, there have been grave provocations when the state saw a hijab controversy and Damoh district authorities demolishing a part of school premises and bulldozer being used in Bhopal for alleged instances of ‘love jihad’ and ‘religious conversions.’ Nath who is state Congress chief, kept mum causing some uproar among the civil society members.

In Nath’s scheme of things, the religious outreach programme or courting the majority community remains his priority. On June 12, AICC General Secretary Priyanka Gandhi Vadra visited Jabalpur where she performed Narmada Pooja at Gwarighat before addressing a mammoth rally. The Congress had painted Jabalpur town with saffron colours showcasing Hanuman’s mace and many other Hindu religious symbols, prompting the BJP to dub her as a ‘Chunavi Hindu’. Nath himself is an ardent follower of Hanuman.

Ghar Wapsi

The second part of Nath’s plan entails desertions from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) camp, particularly targeting those who had left the Congress to join the BJP with Jyotiraditya Scindia in March 2020. The defection led by Scindia and 22 MLAs led to the collapse of Nath government.

As if it is time to seek revenge, Nath is making overtures to these MLAs, and former Congress members who are unhappy in the BJP or are likely to be denied tickets. Baijnath Singh Yadav, an influential leader in Shivpuri, has returned to the Congress, while at least half a dozen of those who had joined the BJP with Scindia are looking for an opportune moment to return to the grand old party. KP Yadav, the BJP Lok Sabha MP who defeated Scindia in 2019 polls is reportedly in touch with the Congress.

Struggling Scindia camp

A major cause of discontentment in the Scindia camp is its inability to assert itself. While Scindia as civil aviation minister enjoys a high status in the BJP hierarchy, those who left the Congress with him are struggling for recognition in the state unit of the BJP. The prospects of many of these defectors being denied a ticket is real — this is because in 2018 many of them contested against the local BJP nominees, and won. The prospects of denial of tickets are real as 2018 assembly polls had seen many defectors contesting against the local BJP nominees.

Five years later, there are aspirants making the ticket distribution in the Gwalior-Chambal region a lot trickier and fiercely competitive. Chauhan is unwilling to make any major concessions to Scindia supporters. The presence of state BJP chief VD Sharma, Home Minister Narottam Mishra, and Union minister Narendra Singh Tomar from the region has further complicated the power equations as the trio is known to oppose the Scindia camp.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah have not given up on Madhya Pradesh. In the next few months, the duo is set to visit the state on numerous occasions to launch a heavy blitz campaign, and shore up the BJP’s prospects. But offsetting anti-incumbency or glossing over Chauhan’s tenure is grim as he is the longest-serving Chief Minister in BJP’s history. Apparently, the BJP central leadership toyed with the idea of replacing Chauhan, but their internal assessment showed that without Chauhan as the CM face the seat tally would further go down.

Kamal vs Kamal

Sensing victory, Nath who was known for his brashness, has become somewhat circumspect, refusing to give big media interviews or comment upon major national, and international events.

Nath’s current residence 9, Shyamla Hills in Bhopal is less than 100 feet from 6, Shyamla Hills, the official residence of the Chief Minister. The contest between Nath and Chauhan is touted as the ‘Kamal versus kamal’.

(Rasheed Kidwai is an author and journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.