Congress needs to change its strategy, solve I.N.D.I.A’s seat-sharing puzzle

As India approaches the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress is undergoing a strategic transformation. The Congress’ massive rally held at Nagpur — where the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is headquartered — coincided with the party’s foundation day’ and marked the commencement of its election campaign with the resounding slogan, ‘We Are Ready’.

The key outreach for the party before the general elections is the Rahul Gandhi-led Bharat Jodo Nyay Yathra, which will address pressing national issues such as unemployment and atrocities against women. This signals an expansion in focus, from unity to addressing wider socio-economic issues. By connecting with the masses through his persona, Gandhi aims to bring a renewed narrative. The Bharat Jodo Nyay Yathra is a crucial mechanism to rejuvenate the party's morale and cadre.

News reports that the Congress might contest in 250-odd Lok Sabha seats in the upcoming elections reflect the party's determination to work out an arrangement with its I.N.D.I.A allies — yet challenges loom large.

The Congress must address setbacks, recalibrate its approach in key battlegrounds such as Uttar Pradesh, and contemplate broader realignments within I.N.D.I.A, the 28-party Opposition, anti-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alliance. The Congress faces the task of turning the tide amidst recent electoral setbacks and a perception of distant victory in the general elections. This is the longest the party has ever remained out of power at the Centre. Though the December assembly results were not in its favour, it has retained considerable vote share in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh. That said, the future course of I.N.D.I.A depends on the success of the seat-sharing talks currently underway.

An internal recalibration within the Congress must go hand-in-hand with a broader realignment within I.N.D.I.A There are thoughts on shifting the alliance’s convenorship to leaders such as Sharad Pawar (Nationalist Congress Party), Mamata Banerjee (Trinamool Congress), or Nitish Kumar (Janata Dal-United) as a departure from the traditional structure of the biggest party in the alliance (the Congress) heading it.

The crucial battleground states demand a shift in strategy. For instance, in a polarised Uttar Pradesh, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra’s charisma might not be sufficient to reclaim the state. A collaboration with Mayawati's Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party (SP) becomes imperative, necessitating a seat-sharing arrangement. Avinash Pande, a former Rajya Sabha Member from Maharashtra, has replaced Priyanka Gandhi as the AICC General Secretary in charge of Uttar Pradesh, signalling a changing focus.

A new approach is required to capture voters’ imagination in the Hindi belt. The party's strongholds in states such as Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, and Telangana provide a foundation for consolidation, but the focus must now shift to broader appeal. The days ahead will reveal whether the Congress can effectively navigate these challenges and emerge as a formidable force in the elections. It will require extraordinary effort, and persistence of the entire Opposition to break the façade the ruling BJP has created. The overemphasis and overselling of ‘Brand Modi’ can be dealt with and rendered ineffective through Opposition unity.

As a key player, the Congress should focus on directly challenging the BJP in over 190 seats, with strong leaders contesting from constituencies that can have a positive impact on the neighbouring seats as well. Seats in which it is weak must be given to coalition partners who have a better chance at winning.

Y S Sharmila joining the Congress will boost the morale of the cadre in Andhra Pradesh. Her YSR Telangana Party didn’t contest the state elections in Telangana and supported the Congress. This helped the party in its victory. The wave created in neighbouring Telangana could add to Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy’s anti-incumbency woes. For the Congress things could dramatically turn if Sharmila takes the leadership role of the Pradesh Congress Committee in Andhra Pradesh. This would bring back many leaders, including MLAs, who left the party during the 2014 assembly polls. An upbeat Congress in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, will positively impact the party’s prospects across the other southern states.

Beyond the apparent electoral strategies, the Opposition is grappling with a deeper quest for relevance. I.N.D.I.A, in countering the BJP's campaign machinery, faces the daunting task of influencing the youth and women. I.N.D.I.A can succeed if the 28 political parties in it fight as a unit against the ruling BJP, and prevent the division of Opposition votes in more than 400 Lok Sabha seats.

The recent suspension of MPs from Parliament saw the I.N.D.I.A parties standing together. If the bloc fights as a single unit, the strategies of the BJP’s election machinery might not be a match. In the days ahead, as political parties reveal their poll plans, a complete picture will emerge.

(Amal Chandra is an author, and Chairman, Research and Development, AIPC Kerala)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.