G20 and its climate promise

The recently concluded meeting of heads of state and governments in New Delhi at the 18th G20 Summit has been termed highly successful and has produced few agreements. Under the leadership of PM Narendra Modi, many world leaders, including those outside the G20 like Bangladesh, Mauritius, the Netherlands, Singapore, Spain, Egypt, Oman, and the UAE, were invited. International organisations like the United Nations, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and the International Labour Organisation, among others, were also invited to attend the summit.

With the G20 collectively responsible for almost 80 per cent of global emissions, the leaders acknowledged the inadequacy of current efforts to address climate change to meet the Paris Agreement goal of keeping the global average temperature well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. They committed to pursuing more ambitious goals, aiming to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Achieving this requires substantial, persistent reductions in global GHG emissions of 43 per cent by 2030 compared to 2019 levels.

At the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) in 2022, UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned global leaders that mankind is on a “highway to climate hell with one foot on the accelerator.” This sense of urgency to address increasing temperatures and climate change was evident during the G20 Leaders’ Summit in New Delhi, where the nations pledged to accelerate their efforts to address environmental crises and problems, including climate change.

The New Delhi Leader’s Declaration urged nations to evaluate and bolster their 2030 targets in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by the end of 2023, considering distinct national circumstances. The key actionable item was a commitment to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, potentially averting 7 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions, as estimated by the International Energy Agency. Not unexpectedly, governments have been frequently pressed in recent years to accept this as a goal.

The growth of renewable energy is also the most preferred route for countries like India and China to combat climate change and reduce reliance on fossil fuels in their economies.

The G20 nations reaffirmed their commitment to achieve global net zero GHG emissions/carbon neutrality by or around the middle of the century while considering the most recent scientific advancements and in accordance with various national circumstances, taking into account various approaches including the circular carbon economy, socio-economic, technological, and market development, and advocating for the most effective solutions.

In addition, despite early reservations from conventional fossil fuel-producing nations such as Russia and Saudi Arabia, doubling renewable capacity is seen as a feasible and impactful step available for the G20 grouping on the climate front. Renewable energy is already being implemented at a rapid pace throughout the world, with annual capacity additions growing at a rate of roughly 10 per cent per year. And, while industrialised countries undoubtedly provided the impetus, there is no fundamental impediment to underdeveloped countries using renewable energy.

Between 2015 and 2022, annual capacity additions more than doubled, increasing by an average of 11 per cent annually. Renewable energy sources could reach the 2030 capacity target with just a slight increase in annual growth rates, but this will require stronger government policy measures, particularly to ensure resilient technology supply chains and economic system integration.

The goal of tripling capacity in seven years is challenging. Without the quick growth in demand from other emerging nations, particularly in Africa, the tripling objective cannot be met. The inclusion of the African Union in the G20 is anticipated to provide this with the proper momentum.

Additionally, it’s possible that the COP28 climate change conference in Dubai this year will approve this promise, in which case it will have
global ownership.

However, even if the doubling objective is met by 2030, it will not be enough to reach the 1.5-degree Celsius goal on its own. Current estimates indicate that by around 24 billion tons of CO2 equivalent, greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 will be beyond the 1.5-degree Celsius acceptable range. If renewable energy were tripled, just 7 billion tons of CO2 equivalent, or less than one-third of what is needed, would be avoided.

(Pawan Kumar teaches at Amity Law School and specialises in international legal studies, and Kumar Kartikeya is a legal researcher)