Gujarat: Don't write off Congress despite AAP's entry

AAP's presence in Gujarat may suggest trouble for Congress prospects at first glance but the party is still very much in the reckoning

The physics of elections is the science of intense heat, blinding light and deafening sound but sans substance. And Gujarat is the next state of the Indian Union up for this electoral extravaganza alongside Himachal Pradesh later this year.

Himachal Pradesh may be high on the agenda of the Aam Admi Party (AAP), whose eyes are firmly fixed on the erstwhile PEPSU (Patiala and East Punjab States Union) but for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his powerful deputy, Amit Shah, Gujarat is a protected preserve from where the knight in shining armour ventured forth to win India. The citadel must be safeguarded irrespective of costs or considerations.

PEPSU was a state of India between 1948 and 1956, uniting eight princely states and loosely covering what is today mainland Punjab, parts of Haryana and Himachal Pradesh. Arvind Kejriwal's AAP today controls Delhi for whatever it is worth, has won Punjab from the Congress to showcase its worth and will majorly target Himachal and Haryana to build its biceps, a homogenous whole - an AAP corridor of sorts - if it plans to have a say in the political affairs of India or even the national Opposition.

Also Read — AAP in Himachal: A mountain too steep?

The AAP has, nevertheless, strategised to hurl the gauntlet at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Gujarat, if only to keep its principal opponents, including the Congress, tied down. Himachal, like Gujarat, has largely had the two principal opponents battling it out, but the AAP is set to play disruptor and seems intent on turning Karnataka into a four-cornered contest as well, with the BJP, Congress, and Janata Dal (Secular) already present there.

For the moment, it is a divided, squabbling Opposition - the Congress and AAP - which should warm the cockles of the ruling BJP's heart in Gujarat as well as nationally, going by the age-old adage of divided you fall. However, Modi is too much of an old warhorse not to understand. He neither takes chances nor trusts and landed on home soil to review things afresh within hours of wrapping up Uttar Pradesh.

Gujarat is crucial for the BJP and Himachal Pradesh for the AAP while the Congress fights a rearguard action for relevance. However, poised precariously in between is the presidential election which possesses the capacity to re-align forces nationally. India must elect a new President by July 24. According to a published estimate, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has 2.2 per cent less than the combined Opposition in the electoral college for the presidential election currently. And therein lies the rub for lots that can change due to the Opposition alignment or the lack of it or, conversely, Modi's ability to have his way or back down to a compromise choice. The outcome will influence the ensuing state elections or those that follow up to the 2024 Lok Sabha contest - Meghalaya, Tripura, Nagaland, Karnataka, Mizoram, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Telangana in 2023 and Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Odisha and Sikkim in 2024.

No wonder the spectacle has already begun in Gujarat. Qutub Minar high claims and Eiffel Tower tall announcements compete with an unending stream of government advertisements, with Prime Minister Modi's picture being the only common strand. Two prime ministers, Boris Johnson of the UK and Pravind Kumar Jugnauth of Mauritius, besides World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, have visited Gujarat this week to a rousing welcome with schoolchildren waving flags of the respective countries and the saffron BJP flag dotting the road divider all the way from the airport to the state capital indicating that electioneering had already begun.

For the record, Jugnauth and the WHO chief were here for the Global Ayush Investment and Innovation Summit 2022, while Johnson flagged off his India visit touching Ahmedabad first. "India shall provide Ayush visa, certification", announced the Indian PM creating a new visa category. He also took the opportunity to lay the foundation stone for a Rs 20,000 crore electric locomotive factory at Dahod while in the tribal district to address a tribal 'mahasammelan' besides inaugurating projects worth Rs 1,400 crore during his three-day visit. Johnson too inaugurated a JCB factory and visited industrial group Adani's headquarters, fuelling speculation of heightened defence and industrial collaboration. In short, it is raining projects and announcements with the intensity set to increase progressively until poll time.

It is a predictably familiar drill for those of us who have covered three Gujarat Assembly and two Lok Sabha elections under Modi's charge before the third one catapulted him to the prime ministerial position. All roads to Delhi now lead through Gujarat, whether it was Chinese President Xi Jinping or Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who laid the foundation for the ambitious bullet train project in Ahmedabad, ahead of the 2017 Gujarat Assembly elections to the VIP visits presently under way.

The BJP has ruled Gujarat for over a quarter-century and Modi for more than half of it, becoming the longest-serving chief minister in the history of the state. The only record that eluded him was Congress chief minister Madhavsinh Solanki's 149 seats out of the total 182 in 1985. But the fact remains that the BJP has been steadily losing electoral ground in Gujarat. Amit Shah campaigned with a benchmark of 150 seats in the 2017 state Assembly polls and ended up with the lowest tally after the advent of Modi rule - one less than 100. Modi's high point was 127 seats for the BJP in 2002, which came down to 117 in 2007 and 115 in 2012. His departure for Delhi has seen further erosion. He nevertheless rules the state with a hawk-like gaze and an iron grip, juggling chief ministers cleaning out cabinets and changing legislators to deftly deflate anti-incumbency. "It works," said his state party chief CR Patil, who makes it a point to tell his party legislators that they have been elected only because of the work and vision of Modi.

For all the strategised communal cleaving, which has been a continuous part of electoral politics ever since the Gujarat Gaurav Yatra of 2002 reaped a bonanza in the state elections that followed, things have been getting tougher for the BJP with every passing poll. Modi had pulled out all stops in campaigning in 2017 but scraped through to power by a mere seven seats in the face of a resurgent Congress in a 182-member house.

The presence of the AAP, fresh from the success of Punjab, may seem to dent even damage the Congress Opposition prospects at first glance, but this does not stand reasoned scrutiny. It is an evolving onion peal scenario and the Congress, for all its apparent disarrayed state, is still very much in the reckoning. It remains the principal Opposition party taking on the BJP in Gujarat as of now.

(RK Misra is a senior journalist based in Ahmedabad)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.