Karnataka poll results have warnings for BJP

Be it Brand Modi or communal polarisation, the law of diminishing returns is catching up with the BJP

The Karnataka election was a matter of great prestige for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), for a multitude of reasons. Foremost among these is that the BJP’s electoral defeat on May 13 resulted in the southern part of India being rendered ‘BJP Mukt’. Despite retaining 36 per cent vote share, the BJP’s seat count went down from 104 in 2018 to 66.

In a historic turn of events, the Congress has secured a resounding victory with a whopping 43 per cent vote share, and an impressive 135 out of 224 seats. As the dust settles on the BJP defeat, it is imperative to examine the various factors that led to this outcome. It is equally important to take note of the warning signs that have emerged for the saffron party.

Diminishing returns

It is time for the BJP to acknowledge that despite being India's most popular leader Prime Minister Narendra Modi cannot lead his party to victory in every state election. This dependence on Modi is becoming counterproductive as the local leadership becomes complacent and expects Modi to save them.

The Prime Minister held approximately 19 rallies and six roadshows during the campaign in Karnataka. Before this, he visited the state numerous times in the preceding months to inaugurate several initiatives. The BJP's strategy is flawed and unsustainable. From Himachal Pradesh to West Bengal to Delhi, there are numerous instances in which the BJP has lost despite Modi's extensive campaigning. This overdependence is detrimental to both the local organisation and the credibility of the Prime Minister. Moreover, when the party loses such crucial elections while maintaining Modi in the spotlight, it diminishes his charisma.

Regional power

The BJP must also acknowledge that there is no easy way to win state elections; they must cultivate, motivate, and acknowledge the regional leadership. In India, the overpowering regional leaders and centralisation of state elections no longer work. Even though it was widely known that former Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa was the tallest BJP leader in the state, the BJP high command removed him as Chief Minister, and replaced him with a much weaker Basavaraj Bommai. Yediyurappa may not be a pliable leader who fits into the Modi-Amit Shah scheme of working — but the BJP will have to abandon this strategy of appointing weaker chief ministers to assure the Modi-Shah dominance.

Sticky problem

The loss in Karnataka illustrates the BJP's lack of a strategy to effectively fight anti-incumbency. The Bommai government was never successful, and his regime was accused of corruption on numerous occasions. But the BJP did not attempt to gain control of the situation. It had an opportunity to set the record straight and put out its vision for Karnataka through its manifesto and campaign—instead the BJP focused primarily on the Modi administration's initiatives. In contrast, the Congress did propose specific populist and welfare programmes for unemployed youth, women, etc. The BJP's dearth of a state-centred development strategy has been detrimental to the party and must be rectified.

Effective strategy

It is also important for the BJP to recognise that the aggressive Hindutva drive is not effective in all state elections. Instead, the saffron party’s aggressive Hindutva, controversies, and attacks on opponents are assisting the Opposition in consolidating the minority vote. In the 2021 Bengal assembly elections, the BJP's Hindutva push assisted Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in consolidating Muslim votes. In Karnataka, approximately 13 percent of the electorate is Muslim, and they vote for both the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Congress, but it appears that the entire portion voted for Congress this time. Notably, the JD(S) vote share decreased by 5 percent, which has been transferred to the Congress.

The BJP will also need a plan to cope with intraparty conflict. In both Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, the BJP was unable to prevent intraparty conflict.

The Karnataka debacle must serve as a wake-up call for the BJP to reassess and realign its political strategies. In the months ahead, the BJP may face mounting challenges in securing victories in state elections. The absence of state-centric strategies, strong leadership, and a clear focus could prove to be significant obstacles for the party.

(Sayantan Ghosh is a doctoral research scholar in media and politics. Twitter: @sayantan_gh.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.