Lakhimpur Kheri incident and BJP's election prospects

It should worry BJP that agitating farmers have declared they will align against the party in the forthcoming polls

As Assembly elections to five crucial states, including Uttar Pradesh and Punjab, are drawing close, there is a subtle shift in the Centre's handling of the farmers' agitation. Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently spoke on the issue by training his guns on the opposition parties, mainly the Congress. Without naming anyone, he accused the opposition of "intellectual dishonesty" in not backing the government on reforms in the agriculture sector. These parties wanted farm reforms as much but did not dare to go through with it, he charged, indicating that the government is in no mood to repeal the three laws that farmers say will hit their livelihoods.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in opposition is different from the BJP in power. The party resisted nearly every socio-economic rights-based reform from the opposition benches, the Food Security Act, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MNREGA), the Goods and Services Tax (GST), or Aadhar digital identification. In power, the party not only adopted the measures but went overboard with them. For every wrong, the party blames previous Congress-led regimes, and for every right, it covers itself with glory.

For a sector reeling under the impact of economic liberalisation of the 1990s, agriculture reforms should have been gradual and after due diligence. But the intention to bring the three reform-oriented laws was abruptly announced when the country was reeling under the Covid-19 pandemic and then introduced through ordinances, which was questionable. Much has been written about the manner in which the Bills were rushed through in Parliament without the scrutiny of the concerned committees, which is the norm.

Also read: Union Minister Ajay Mishra allegedly threatened farmers before Lakhimpur Kheri violence

When farmers decided to take matters into their hands and announced an indefinite agitation seeking repeal of the three farm laws which they say will hit their livelihoods, the government initially engaged with them. Meetings were held at the level of Union ministers without yielding results. Farmers wanted the laws to be scrapped, which the government was not willing to do. They sought a meeting with the PM, but government sources said that he could not have intervened unless there was a meeting ground. In the meantime, the Supreme Court stayed the implementation of the Acts.

The BJP's long-time alliance partner, the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), came out of the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), and its lone minister in the Union cabinet resigned. Farmers are a constituency no political party can afford to lose, and with the then Punjab CM Amarinder Singh backing the agitation, the SAD could not have been far behind. Remember, farmers gave a beleaguered United Progressive Alliance a second consecutive term in 2009 after the Manmohan Singh government came up with a debt waiver package for them. Why go far? Even in the previous Assembly elections in 2017, the BJP, following the footsteps of the then ruling Congress party in Punjab, announced a last-minute Rs 36,000 crore loan waiver scheme for UP farmers to win the election. Official data shows that almost 50 per cent of farmers in the country have unpaid loans against them.

By its actions, the BJP seems to be making the going tough for itself this time around as well as it faces Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur early next year. Apart from the anti-incumbency factor, the party will have to contend with farmers' ire at the hustings.

The Samyukt Kisan Morcha, an amalgamation of several farmers organisations, has committed itself to non-violence and resisted retaliation in the face of repression, be it the lathi charge at Karnal in Haryana last year month or the recent mowing down of four farmers at a protest in Lakhimpur Kheri. It has stood firm and united against all odds.

Also read: Lakhimpur Kheri: Priyanka Gandhi Vadra on 'hunger strike' following detention

The BJP is worried now and forced to rethink its strategy is the massive mobilisation of people at the last month's Mahapanchayat (assembly of village panchayats) in UP's Muzaffarnagar, the bastion of the Bhartiya Kisan Union (BKU), a major component of the Morcha. This was followed by the very public anointing of Jayant Chaudhary as the successor to his father, union minister Ajit Singh. The latter held considerable sway in the sugarcane belt of western UP. This will be the first election that Jayant will face without his father. He has the support of farmers and is likely to form an alliance with the Samajwadi Party (SP) for the forthcoming elections.

It may be recalled that the BKU co-founder Mahendra Singh Tikait enjoyed a rapport with Ajit Singh's father, Chaudhary Charan Singh, the former prime minister and a towering farm leader. In 2014, Rakesh Tikait had unsuccessfully contested the Lok Sabha election from Amroha on Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) ticket. There is a symbiotic relationship between the two, which the BJP managed to breach in the 2014 Modi wave.

However, this time, the BJP will have much to worry about as agitating farmers have declared that they will align against it in the upcoming elections. Whether farmer leaders will themselves enter the electoral fray and put up candidates for direct contests is unclear. Still, there are indications that they will back non-BJP like-minded contestants. In UP, for instance, if Muslims and Jats can bury the hatchet over the 2013 communal riots in Muzaffarnagar and rise as a farming community, it will add to the BJP's woes.

The Lakhimpur Kheri incident has arrayed opposition parties against the ruling party. Leaders from across the political spectrum have condemned the incident leading to the arrest of the main accused. The general opinion is that the PM must rein in political entities indulging in provocative speeches and acts against farmers whose contribution kept the economy going through the devastating Covid-19 lockdown months.

Signals from the recent events—Mahapanchayat at Muzaffarnagar, Bharat bandh and black flag protests in Haryana and UP—indicate that farmers are gearing up for a major confrontation with the central government over their demands. If the government does not take timely steps for damage control, the Lakhimpur Kheri incident can fan unrest.

Considering that the farming households comprise more than 50 per cent of the rural population in the major states slated for polls, the Centre needs to evaluate the situation afresh and come up with solutions urgently. A possible hike in the direct income support under Prime Minister Kisan Samman Nidhi may not be enough. The decision will primarily have to be on the three new farm laws and assured payment of support price for agriculture produce.

The way BJP-opposed parties are openly warming up to the peasants' cause - the RLD and the SP in UP, Indian National Lok Dal in Haryana, SAD and Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab and the Congress and its allies - will hit the BJP's prospects in the forthcoming elections. Farm laws are bound to become the central issue and farmers the talking point.

(The writer is a Delhi-based senior journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the authors’ own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.