Why Mamata seems to be sitting pretty in Bengal

What happens in Bengal politics is important not just for Bengal but for all of India as well. First, Bengal is one state where despite strong election campaigning by the Modi-Shah duo, the Modi juggernaut was stopped by the TMC in the last Assembly elections. Second, Mamata Banerjee is considered a possible PM candidate for the I.N.D.I.A. Alliance. Third, can the Left, which ruled Bengal for more than three decades at a stretch and then was reduced to zero presence in the state Assembly, make a comeback this time, heralding a return to significance in Bengal and Indian politics?

So, what is the state of Bengal’s political landscape on the eve of the
Lok Sabha elections? More specifically, what is new in Bengal politics since TMC’s thumping win in the last Assembly elections?

Corruption, including recruitment scams in various spheres, was and will be the major campaigning issue by the anti-TMC forces. The recent incidents in Sandeshkhali, where forcible occupation of land and alleged sexual harassment by local TMC strongmen for many years and the apathy of the administration until local people came out in large numbers to protest have added to the ongoing corruption charges against TMC leaders being probed by the CBI and ED. 

The Opposition will argue that Sandeshkhali is not an isolated episode, but many Sandeshkhalis exist in Bengal. However, it seems that the majority of common voters, especially women and those in the BPL category in the rural areas, are not that concerned with this issue as they consider it to be the feature of all political parties, particularly when they see the same faces changing allegiance from one ruling party to the other at the local levels. They are much more interested in continuing to reap the benefits from various welfare schemes launched by TMC, especially those for women, which they consider to be gifts from ‘Didi’ rather than from Modi, even when some of the schemes are majorly funded by the Centre. 

Since the Modi government has withheld funds for NREGS and PM Awas Yojana in Bengal on grounds of corruption and non-submission of accounts, TMC leaders continue to harp on the “vindictive denial” of funds to Bengal by BJP, which many poor voters deprived of benefits tend to accept.

Within the TMC leadership, a fight is brewing between the ‘old’ guard and the younger brigade led by Abhishek Banerjee, the nephew and chosen successor-designate by the TMC supremo. It is to be seen whether this infighting, and possible sabotaging by insiders (interesting that even Mamata Banerjee’s brother, denied a ticket, openly revolted and threatened to fight as an ‘independent’ against TMC’s chosen candidate and Mamata had to publicly ‘disown’ her brother) will have any significant impact on the election results. Concerns over Mamata’s health are adding to the uncertainty.

One major problem with Opposition forces in Bengal is the absence of a charismatic Bengali face on their side. Sourav Ganguly could have been one such face. But, despite some initial hobnobbing with BJP leaders, Ganguly seems to have finally settled for Mamata’s side after he was shunted out of the BCCI by Jay Shah and Co. Sourav is now being showcased by Mamata as an upcoming industrialist of Bengal.

But another Ganguly is showing some promise for the Opposition – former Calcutta High Court judge Abhijit Ganguly who played a leading role in pursuing corruption cases against several major TMC leaders. He has been regarded as ‘god’ by some of the people who suffered because of the various scams under the TMC regime. After resigning as judge, he has joined the BJP and is set to fight for a Lok Sabha seat from Bengal. 

TMC, to sully his image and raise questions about his ‘independence’ as a judge while pursuing cases against TMC leaders, will try hard to project him as a partisan who worked for the benefit of his political masters while occupying the judge’s chair. It is to be seen whether the current BJP leadership in Bengal would give him prominence as the leading BJP face.

The recently announced implementation of the CAA, especially for granting citizenship to Hindu immigrants from Bangladesh, is likely to be an election issue. While the BJP wants to use this to attract votes from such Hindu immigrants (including the Matuas, who are already settled in Bengal in sizeable numbers), TMC would project this as a precursor to the NRC exercise, which will create problems for even Hindu immigrants from Bangladesh (who may have already got Aadhaar card and Voter ID in India) as it had caused in Assam. 

It is interesting to note that despite ruling in only one state, TMC managed to get funds through the now-defunct Electoral Bonds (EBs) almost equal to Congress, which has ruled in multiple states during the same period. The Opposition, especially the Left parties who opted out of EBs, is likely to raise questions on the nexus (and quid pro quos) between donors and TMC. BJP, with the lion’s share of EB funds, however, will find it difficult to level this charge of ‘crony capitalism’ against TMC. 

The biggest problem that BJP leaders from Delhi face while campaigning in Bengal is that they are considered ‘outsiders’, because of their unfamiliarity with Bengali language, culture and traditions. Though the TMC has fielded a few ‘outsiders’ like Shatrughan Sinha and now Yusuf Pathan, the average Bengali ‘Bhadrolok’ is quite fearful of the ‘forcible’ imposition of Hindi and the associated vegetarianism and culture of the orthodox Hindi-Hindu heartland if the BJP comes to power in Bengal.

TMC has already marched all 42 candidates in a maidan rally, presenting some sense of solidarity within the party despite dissentions and infighting, and is going to get the ‘first mover’ advantage. The BJP is yet to finalise the list and the Left and Congress are nowhere near working out a seat adjustment exercise. In the last Assembly elections, sensing a possible BJP victory, several leaders from TMC joined BJP and then switched back to TMC. This time, no such tendency is yet visible, perhaps because the TMC winning a majority of seats in parliamentary elections in Bengal is being taken as a safe bet, even as opinion polls are indicating a rise in vote-share, but no increase in seat tally, for the Left and Congress. 

(The writer is a former Professor of Economics, IIM-Calcutta, and Cornell University)