Assembly Elections 2024 | Haryana high for BJP, J&K goes to NC-Congress

The NC scored big in Jammu and Kashmir, where assembly elections are being held for the first time since 2019 when Article 370 was abrogated and the state bifurcated into union territories.

New Delhi: The BJP on Tuesday defied exit poll predictions and roared to a third straight term in Haryana, dashing the hopes of an upbeat Congress, while the National Conference-Congress combine secured a clear majority in Jammu & Kashmir’s first Assembly elections after Article 370 was scrapped.

The saffron party’s hat-trick in Haryana and its stellar show in Jammu come after it failed to cross the halfway mark in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The results will bring electoral relief to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and provide political heft to the ruling party in dealing with belligerent opponents and demanding allies in the NDA coalition.

For the Congress, which harboured hopes of unseating the BJP in Haryana, the shock defeat has laid bare the grand old party’s inability to challenge the BJP in direct duels, a script that previously played out in other heartland states.

The aftershocks of this painful defeat will reverberate in the upcoming Assembly polls in Maharashtra and Jharkhand, as it will hamper the Congress’ ability to drive a hard bargain with allies.

In Haryana, in a closely contested election, the BJP improved its 2019 tally to register its best-ever performance, bagging 48 seats as the Congress failed to impress outside the Jat-dominated rural belt. Rebels and independents damaged the party’s prospects in many constituencies.

As in Madhya Pradesh under Kamal Nath and Rajasthan under Ashok Gehlot last year, in Haryana, too, the Congress campaign was helmed entirely by Bhupinder Singh Hooda. Despite strong tailwinds engendered by the LS polls, the party failed to capitalise on anti-incumbency as CM Nayab Singh Saini managed to pip the Congress by less than one percent vote.

In J&K, the bulk of the heavy lifting was done by Omar Abdullah’s National Conference while the Congress nudged the coalition past the halfway mark.

The larger story of this round of polls is aptly displayed in the constituency map of the two states.

In Haryana, while the Jat-dominated central belt is predominantly blue, the counter-polarisation of other communities against Jat mobilisation (‘ab ki baar Hooda sarkar’) is visible in the periphery, along the largely urban GT Karnal Road connecting Delhi and Chandigarh and backward classes-dominated districts on the western front, extending from Gurugram to Bhiwani.

In a redux of MP and Chhattisgarh last year, BJP displayed remarkable ability to draft a campaign to suit a given milieu. BJP’s electioneering was more local than national. Modi addressed just 4 rallies this time around compared to eight and 10 in the 2014 and 2019 elections, respectively.

The Congress’ guarantees, a template lifted from Karnataka, failed to impress voters. On the other hand, BJP relied more on social engineering, replacing former CM Manohar Lal Khattar with Nayab Singh Saini, an OBC, to consolidate backward caste votes and pare down anti-incumbency.

As elections neared, Congress’ seat distribution strategy, which crystallised in favour of Bhupinder Singh Hooda loyalists, gave credence to BJP’s narrative on ‘Jat domination’.

A brief hiatus by Kumari Selja, the party’s Dalit face, amidst bickering over seat distribution gave further ammo to BJP. The chinks in Congress’ armour gave just enough space to BJP to re-start a conversation and it was rewarded with a decisive 21% Dalit votes.

In J&K, the electorate gave a clear mandate to I.N.D.I.A bloc, despite the clutter of independent candidates and parties that entered the fray in the Valley at the last moment.

The BJP, which painted the Jammu saffron by winning 29 out of 43 seats, may have to sit in the Opposition failing to extend its reach beyond areas of traditional influence.

Haryana Assembly poll 2024 results| Check constituency results here

J&K Assembly poll 2024 results| Check constituency results here

Assembly Elections 2024 | In the first assembly polls since the Lok Sabha elections, Narendra Modi and the BJP face a rejuvenated and vindicated Opposition in the Haryana assembly polls. Meanwhile, Jammu and Kashmir is voting after almost a decade and it remains to be seen how the abrogation of Article 370 has impacted the political landscape of the Valley. Check live updates and track the latest coverage, live news, in-depth opinions, and analyses only on Deccan Herald.

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